Please Read: Welcome to the new-look Inside the Gators
- Florida-No. 19 Miami Breakdown & Prediction
- Five on the Spot: It’s becoming now or never for Napier
- Take Five Breakdown: Florida-No. 19 Miami Preview
- Running Visitor List for the UF-Miami Game
- 10 Observations: Florida Opening Day Depth Chart
- Predicting Who Plays: Seven signees most likely to avoid redshirt season
- Florida Football Preseason Superlatives
- Early Entry Review: Lagway embarks on promising future
- Redshirt Report: High football IQ will serve Kearney well
- Anonymous Player Q&A I: Thoughts on the state of Florida football
- O&B Board: Uninformed Thoughts on Florida’s NIL
- Under Napier, Florida has a clear recruiting footprint
Inside the Gators Ben McLeish and Mark Wheeler take a closer look at Saturday’s match-up between Florida and No. 19 Miami including thoughts on what a win or loss would mean for the Gators, Florida’s biggest advantage and disadvantage, as well as offering up a score prediction.
What would a win or loss mean for the rest of Florida’s season?
McLeish: A win means Billy Napier can take a breath. Not a deep breath, but a breath. Napier has one of the hottest seats of any collegiate coach, but a win against 19th-ranked Miami in week one would be a huge boost for the third-year head coach. Every win brings Napier one step closer to remaining the Gators head coach for another season. A loss significantly reduces the chances of Napier returning for the 2025 season. The schedule doesn’t get any easier, and it’s hard to believe Florida will make a bowl game if they start the season with a loss to Miami.
Wheeler: First, remember that it is a long season and this is just the first of 12 regular season games. That means the season isn’t over if UF were to lose, and there will still be bumps in the road ahead even if the Gators win. Having said that, look, for all the good that he has done off the field, on the field, where it matters most, the Billy Napier era in Gainesville has gotten off to a forgettable 11-14 start. A win, over an instate rival, would give the Florida Faithful a reason to believe that maybe there is light at the end of the tunnel. That the Gator Nation might finally start seeing a return on all that Napier has been given to work with. If UF loses, which would be six in a row, the noise in the system would crank up several decimals.
What are the Gators’ biggest advantages and disadvantages?
McLeish: The Gators’ biggest advantage can always be summed up in three words. Home. Field. Advantage. The Swamp will be hot, packed, and rowdy for the Gators’ season opener. While Miami is used to the heat, they are not used to playing in an atmosphere quite like the Swamp. I expect at least two false start/delay of game penalties by Miami.
Florida’s biggest disadvantage is in the trenches. The Gators made very few changes to last year’s offensive line, which was one of the weak spots for Florida last season. Meanwhile, Miami added several impactful players on the defensive line from the transfer portal. Graham Mertz will not have much time in the pocket.
Wheeler: Florida has two equally big advantages in having a returning starter at quarterback, in Graham Mertz, and having the home-field advantage. With so much movement among players, it was bound to happen that quarterbacks would start changing teams at a record pace. As was on display last weekend, Georgia Tech’s Haynes King, in his second year in the Yellow Jackets’ system, looked more comfortable than DJ Uiagalelei, who was playing his first game for Florida State. Mertz not only has a season under his belt in Napier’s system, but he has also played with five of his top six receivers in the past, with only summer transfer Elijhah Badger being new to the mix. There’s a comfort level there that should benefit the Gators regardless of what is happening up front along the line.
As big an advantage will be Florida opening at home in the Swamp. I think back to last year and the impact it played in the win over Tennessee. The Volunteers were the better team and were more talented along both lines, but the crowd noise had the Vols on their heels throughout, and that allowed the Gators’ defensive line to take advantage and have their best game of the season.
The biggest disadvantage is along the lines.
It’s fitting that while thinking this over, in the background The Who was on YouTube, and it transitioned from Baba O’Riley to Won’t Get Fooled Again. Last year, when Florida’s defensive line dominated the offensive line throughout the spring and fall camp, I pondered on the forum if it was because UF’s defensive line was that good or perhaps it was because the offensive line was that bad. Well, it turned out that the defensive line wasn’t that good, and the offensive line was terrible.
They may be slightly improved this year, but I don’t think either side has made a huge jump – at least not to the extent many are predicting. Yes, Florida has improved depth, but these still aren’t upper-level lines.
On offense you have Knijeah Harris making his second start ever. Kamryn Waites is making only his third career start at right tackle, and Damieon George Jr. is making his first start at right guard. That seems to me like a recipe for disaster.
On the other side of the ball, while there are some potential standouts, there are just as many questions that have to be answered, the first among them is asking whether your starting interior linemen are capable of giving you anything more than a handful of quality snaps per game.
Who are the key players to watch for?
McLeish: Transfer portal quarterback Cam Ward will be Miami’s x-factor for not only this game but the entire season. Ward’s had an impressive career thus far, and he will now be given the best roster he’s ever had. Pair him with senior wide receiver Xavier Restrepo, and you have one dangerous offense.
With Ricky Pearsall gone, Tre Wilson will be the number-one option in Florida’s receiving game. I expect Graham Mertz to target him early and often, especially on deep routes. On the defensive side, Shemar James will make his much-awaited return. If the Gators want to improve defensively this season, it will start with James.
Wheeler: Since it goes without saying that Florida better be aware of where Rueben Bain Jr. is pre-snap, I’ll go in a different direction and focus on two newcomers.
Transfer linebacker Grayson Howard brings a much-needed physical presence to the middle of Florida’s defense and that will be needed in order to help keep Miami transfer running back Damien Martinez in check.
Prediction
McLeish: On paper, Miami is the better team. But Florida is 2-0 in home openers under Billy Napier. A much more experienced Gator defense will hold Cam Ward in check in his Hurricanes’ debut. The Swamp will be electric, and the Gators will start off the hardest schedule in college football with a W. Florida 24-21.
Wheeler: Every season, really every game, is a chance to start anew. However, it would be foolish to ignore how poorly Florida has performed against rivals (1-7) and ranked opponents (2-10) under Billy Napier. I do believe that because of the atmosphere and Mertz coming out of his shell a little, the Gators will keep it close until late, but the Hurricanes’ lines will wear them down on both sides of the ball. Miami 37-27
Period.
If it was a college football Saturday, we were watching and pulling for the Gators.
On a personal note, I do hope UF wins tomorrow. Not just because I am a fan, but my experience has been that, on average, Miami has the most deplorable of fanbases.
However, the pick isn't based on what I hope happens.
It is based on what I believe will happen.
I could be wrong. I hope I am. It wouldn't hurt my feelings in the least if UF were to pull the upset. Going in though, I believe that UM is the better team.