Please Read: Welcome to the new-look Inside the Gators
- The Big Board: One month to go
- October Superlatives
- Former Florida Player Feedback: 10 Observations
- Parental Perspective: Florida Football Commits Parental RoundTable
- OTM: Is there a path to a fourth year
- Ranking UF’s commits from least to most likely to jump ship
- What names are on your Coaching Hot Board
Inside the Gators’ Ben McLeish and Mark Wheeler take a closer look at Saturday’s match-up between Florida and No. 21 LSU, including thoughts onwhat a win would mean to Florida’s Billy Napier, Gators players to keep an eye on, as well as offering up a score prediction.
What would a win against LSU mean for Billy Napier?
McLeish: Regardless of what happens on Saturday, Billy Napier will be the Gators head coach for 2025. But winning this game could put him in a much better start for next season. The fans are still largely split on Napier. Some want to give him another chance to build the program, but others wanted him gone two months ago. Beating LSU would give the fans hope that Napier is truly building something in Gainesville. It would put him one step closer to making a bowl game, which many would consider a miracle with the hardest schedule in college football.
Wheeler: As far as job status, since it has already been announced that Billy Napier will return next season, the outcome here means very little. However, a win would help Florida advance along the path to the six wins needed for bowl eligibility. And, maybe, at least as far as perception is concerned, a win here could help quiet critics somewhat based on another metric. Much like with Mario Cristobal and Miami to start the season, this is another matchup between Napier and a coach – Brian Kelly – who was hired at the same time. To this point, not only in the head-to-head match-up where Kelly is 2-0, Napier lags behind Kelly in every meaningful category. From overall record (15-19 to 26-10), to record against FBS opponents (10-19 to 20-10), to record against ranked opponents (2-14 to 4-8), to league record (8-14 to 15-6), Kelly not only is out in front, it’s so one sided it’s embarrassing. Saturday will be Napier’s latest chance to exact a pound of flesh from Kelly and show that he at least somewhat belongs on the same level.
Which version of the Florida defense will we see against LSU?
McLeish: I think we’ll see the defense perform closer to how they did against Texas than against Tennessee. This defense is clearly worn down. Many key players are injured and I just don’t think they have another dominant performance in the tank. The LSU offense has torched Florida the last two years, and I don’t think much will change this season.
Wheeler: The good news for Florida is that LSU enters the game ranked dead last in the SEC in rushing offense, averaging just 114.0 yards per game. The bad news for Florida is that the Gators enter the game ranked second to last in the SEC in rush defense. Which weakness is going to previal? If UF can shut down the run and make LSU one dimensional, the Gators have a chance to hold one of the SEC’s better offenses in check. We already know LSU is one of the better passing offenses in the league. If UF can’t stop the run, you have to wonder how they’ll fare in a shootout.
Players to watch for Florida? LSU?
McLeish: For Florida, Jadan Baugh will be key for the offense. The last time Baugh took the field at the Swamp he had his coming out game. He doesn’t necessarily need another five touchdown performance, but he will need to step up for an offense that will either have a banged up DJ Lagway.
For LSU, Garrett Nussmeier will determine the Tigers success. If he has his fifth multi-interception game of the season, the Gators will have a shot at limiting the LSU offense. But if he plays mistake free football, LSU will likely run up the score on the injured Gators.
Wheeler: I’ll combine both sides into one explaination. While LSU is strong on the outside with Will Campbell and Emery Jones, one of the biggest issues they have in the running game is that they have issues up the middle with a pair of redshirt freshmen Paul Mubenga and DJ Chester being thrown into action. Can Florida defensive tackles Cam Jackson (who accepted a Senior Bowl invite on Thursday) and Caleb Banks take advantage of their youth and inexperience?
Prediction
McLeish: We finally get to see the true Gator offense with DJ Lagway back for LSU. Still, I think Lagway will be rusty coming off of a hamstring injury. LSU will continue its offensive onslaught on the Gators and the Tigers will take care of business for the sixth straight year. LSU 42-33
Wheeler: What version of DJ Lagway are we going to see? Is his hamstring still so tender that it will limit his ability to use his legs? Or, is he 100% sound and ready to go full speed? If Florida’s pass defense doesn’t look better than it did against Texas, it might not matter. There was some quit in the blowout loss to Texas last week. However, the return of Lagway feels like it can be a catalyst toward having some momentum going into this game. If the noise in the Swamp can have the same impact on LSU’s offensive line that it did on Tennessee’s in 2023, that’s an advantage that will be hard to overcome. Florida 28-24
Season-to-date Predictions
0 comments