Florida-No. 2 Georgia Breakdown & Prediction

Billy Napier looks to finally get a win against Georgia

by Inside the Gators Staff
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Inside the Gators’ Ben McLeish and Mark Wheeler take a closer look at Saturday’s match-up between Florida and No. 2 Georgia, including thoughts on what might be considered a ‘win’ for Florida, Gators players to keep an eye on, as well as offering up a score prediction.

What would be considered a “win” for Florida this week?

McLeish: Obviously, a win would be ideal for Florida. But nobody outside of Gainesville is picking the Gators to win on Saturday. However, there are situations where Gator fans should still remain optimistic. If DJ Lagway continues to improve and has success against Georgia, that would be a huge win. If the defense plays its best game all year against the Gators’ biggest rival, that would be a reason to celebrate. And if Billy Napier plans a complete game where Florida looks good in all four quarters, that would be a miracle. If all three of those things happen, then the Gators might just walk out of Jacksonville with a W.

Wheeler: It speaks to the sad state of the Florida football program when prior to kickoff we are looking for some sort of moral victory to help accept a loss on the field. It is what it is though. The reality is that under Billy Napier the Gators haven’t been the least bit competitive against UGA, averaging a three-touchdown loss in the two outings. In 2022 Georgia was up 28-3 at the half, before UF put up a fight in the third quarter. Then last year, Florida struck first to go up 7-0 but was down 36-7 to end the third quarter. So, playing them closer might be seen as a ‘win’ by a faction of the fanbase, but those types are more likely there for the tailgate than being actual diehards.

What do the Gators need to do to succeed against Georgia?

McLeish: The Gators need to do the same thing they did last week. Take care of the ball, throw the deep ball, and create turnovers. The Gators need to win the turnover battle against a much more experienced team. Carson Beck has thrown five interceptions in the last two games. They need to take advantage of that. Offensively, DJ Lagway has had by far the most success with his deep ball. The wide receivers consistently got open against a Kentucky defense that only allowed 14.5 ppg coming into the game. If that connection remains strong, the Gators have a chance to hang in there with the Georgia offense.

Wheeler: When it was announced that Graham Mertz was out for the season, I tweeted that with all due respect to him, Florida was in a better position to pull an upset down the stretch with DJ Lagway at the helm. You aren’t going to dink and dunk your way down the field to find the endzone many times against more talented defenses. You have to hit an explosive play or two. The deep ball is a factor with Lagway leading the way. I don’t know that he is going to hit six of them (like he did against Kentucky), but two or three long completions is a realistic goal.

Key Players to watch for Florida? Georgia?

McLeish: For Florida, DJ Lagway will make or break the game. You can almost always say that about the quarterback, but this will be a huge test for Lagway. He has to face one of the best defenses in college football in his third-ever start. It’s time to see if he rises to the occasion or folds under pressure.

For Georgia, I have a bad feeling that former Florida running back Trevor Etienne will ball out against his former squad. Etienne has yet to take over a game, but he’s been a big contributor to the Georgia offense all season. And he’s coming off of a three-touchdown performance. Linebacker Jalon Walker has been a dominant force on the Georgia defense. He leads the team with 4.5 sacks and is coming off of his best game of the year.

Wheeler: For Florida, I’m going to be watching the right guard spot. Damieon George Jr. was listed as Questionable on Thursday’s Availablity Report and missed some practice time this week. At the beginning of the season, Kamryn Waites was his backup, but since then, he has moved to the left side and Bryce Lovett is the second-string right guard. IF George Jr. can’t go or is limited, who does UF turn to?

When it comes to Georgia, the player to keep an eye on is Jacksonville native, and former Florida target, quarterback Carson Beck. The senior entered the season as a top Heisman contender and was projected as a first-round NFL draft pick. Seven games into the season, he still hasn’t reached the 2,000-yard passing mark and has only eight touchdown passes, to go with eight interceptions in conference play. Without Jason Marshall Jr. out there, his task on Saturday just became much easier, but overall Florida’s defense has been on an upswing as of late. We’ll find out on Saturday if that is because of the level of competition or if they are legit.

Prediction

McLeish: As a senior at the University of Florida, I would love to see the Gators beat Georgia for the first time during my tenure. But, I just don’t think that’s going to happen. DJ Lagway is a special player, but I don’t think he’s polished enough to take down an elite Georgia defense. I do think the Gators can keep it close for most of the game, but they just don’t have the firepower to pull off the upset. I’d much rather have the Gators prove me wrong and avoid becoming the first senior class to not have a win against the Bulldogs since 1983. Georgia 38-27.

Wheeler: Partially because of how Florida’s defense performed against Tennessee and how the offense performed against Kentucky – but it feels like Florida has a better chance this weekend than they’ve had the last several years entering Jacksonville. In sports, the most important factor is the Jesses and Joes – and then coaching comes into play when the teams are more evenly matched. The reason games aren’t played on paper though is because of the human factor. Injuries, momentum, self-doubt, mistakes, etc… I was considering it. I wanted to, but I can’t quite go out on a limb here. Georgia 31-20

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