This is akin to being two minutes too long out in the sun. It doesn’t even amount to a sunburn in the world of recruiting. Gaining or losing this prospect isn’t really that big of a deal.
A superficial wound that Florida barely feels at all – being from the Sunshine State, this is a mild sunburn at worst. Gaining him doesn’t mean that much, and losing him is something that the staff will shrug off and move on
This is when you really start to take notice. In real life, a third degree burn should result in a trip to the hospital. It’s not an overnight stay, but it is serious enough that it needs to be tended to. In the world of recruiting, gaining or losing a prospect in this category likely causes you to take stock of what your board looks like.
The fourth degree is when the Florida staff really starts to feel the heat, good or bad. Gaining this player gets you off on the right foot and makes you feel good about recruiting. While losing him isn’t fatal in itself, these take time to recover from. When this happens, it can cause you to reassess your board
This is one of two things: a huge celebration bonfire or an all-but-fatal full body encased in an inferno. A couple of these can either put you over the top or kill recruiting at a position to the point that it can potentially wreck a class
Top Florida targets have been falling like flies over the last two weeks, but not all news is created equally. Some moves are extraordinary, some simply positive, some simply negative, and some incredibly devastating. Today we take a closer look at the events surrounding six prospects who committed to Florida or another program and what it means for the Gators’ board going forward.
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In chronological order of commitment based on the latest to happen – rankings are courtesy of the On3 Industry Composite
Chancelor Barclay
Four-Star Offensive Lineman
Comment: Even though I thought Florida held the lead coming out of the recruiting dead period, this one doesn’t surprise me. To explain why, I am going to do something that shouldn’t be done – I am going to mix religion and sports. Don’t take it the wrong way, this doesn’t mean that he is more Christian than any other coach, but Dabo Swinney wears his religion on his sleeve more visibly than probably any other college football head coach. If you have ever spoken with Chancellor Barclay you would know that he probably speaks more openly about his religion than just about any other prospect in this cycle. Again, it doesn’t make either of them any more religious or Christian than anyone else, but I can definitely see why there would be a connection there. So, while I thought UF was the team to beat, I can see why this happened and wouldn’t be shocked if this one sticks. On the football side of it, this isn’t at all a ‘slam’ against him, but he doesn’t have the body type that UF has recruited under Billy Napier and Rob Sale. So, I was a bit surprised that he was as high as a priority as he seemed to be.
Possible Replacement: Here, before the spring evaluation period, you’re probably looking at two IMG Academy offensive linemen – G’nivre Carr and Breck Kolojay – to ascend (do you see what I did there?) to the very top of the board, if they weren’t already there. Also, does Florida try to get in the mix with Micah Smith, who they simply haven’t been able to gain traction with despite his campus visits.
Grant Wise
Four-Star Offensive Lineman
Comment: This loss is mitigated somewhat by the fact that while Florida was a program that he would mention, it never felt like the Gators were in a position to be considered a top dog. Billy Napier visited him at his high school in January, but when his plans fell through to make his planned ‘Shadow Day’ visit to UF, that was probably the writing on the wall. In February he released a top five, which didn’t include the Gators, and then this past weekend he committed to Clemson while on an unofficial visit.
Possible Replacement: See above
Naeem Burroughs
Four-Star Receiver
Comment: You can downplay this loss by trying to focus on Florida currently having a stacked receiver room, but that stacked room is based mostly on being able to do well with the top wide outs in-state. Well, here is a top wide out, with apologies to Calvin Russell, perhaps the best in the state, who had UF at or near the top of his board, who decided to take his talents out-of-state. This is one I would keep an eye on. Not that Burroughs isn’t solid in his conviction, but it’s so early in the process, and Clemson is known to be adamant that their commits not take other visits. We’ll see if those two worlds collide down the road.
Possible Replacement: After visiting two months ago, Jabari Brady is giving Florida a second look, but at this time, you probably have to think that Somourian Wingo is the best bet to be the top instate guy Florida lands at the position during this cycle.
Joel Ervin
Three-Star Offensive Tackle
Comment: On the surface, this one is a bit of a head scratcher in that at the start of the dead period in February, coming off his visit to Florida, this is one prospect that if the Gators had gone all in on, he likely would have committed. UF seemed to be in that good a standing. Below the surface though, I think, and it’s just my take, that the coaches liked him, but while still in on top end tackles such as Immanuel Iheanacho, Sam Greer, Keenyi Pepe, Felix Ojo, and Samuel Roseborough – you can’t pull the trigger on Ervin, who looks the part, but is a step below those mentioned, while you still have somewhat of a shot at the very top end guys. I haven’t studied them, but Louisville likely doesn’t have as stacked of an offensive tackle board, and thus made Ervin more of a priority (as well as a much more substantial offer). I would venture a guess that depending on what happens to the UF offensive tackle board, it isn’t completely over between the Gators and Ervin.
Possible Replacement: This is one of those situations that coaching staffs have to deal with – is a bird in the hand worth more than two in the bush? Elite programs need elite players. Even if it is an uphill battle, as long as prospects such as Immanuel Iheanacho, Sam Greer, Keenyi Pepe, and Felix Ojo have you as a possibility, you have to battle for their services. In doing so, you might have to put good prospects, who might turn out to be great players, in a bit of a holding pattern.
Jaelen Waters
Four-Star Cornerback
Comment: How severe this burn actually is probably depends on who you ask. For the last couple of months, before his decommitment and then eventual pledge to Miami, it has felt as though a good portion of the Gator Nation was already over him and ready to move on from him. With Florida’s former cornerbacks coach Will Harris now at UM, despite Waters’ national ranking, there’s no telling where he would stand on Deron Wilson‘s board. From a purely recruiting perspective, this one does burn because not only was Waters (at that time) Florida’s highest rated commitment, but without him, the cornerback board doesn’t look anywhere near as pleasing.
Possible Replacement:Brody Jennings headlines the board at cornerback, which isn’t all that deep. That could change with the spring evaluation period coming up. Before everything about the recruiting process accelerated, that is the time that most offers went out. A new coach is going to reset the board based on his own evaluations, you saw that with CJ Bronaugh being offered this week.
Izayia Williams
Four-Star Linebacker
Comment: If this were his first, or even second commitment, adding a Top 50 prospect in the nation and a Top Five prospect in the state would be worth at least a four-degree burn rating, if not four and a half. However, it’s hard to overlook his commitment history and wonder how long this one will last. That’s just the reality of it. If he sticks though, UF will be adding a linebacker with the frame to put on a good 15-20 pounds while keeping his plus speed and athleticism for the position. He has said he is a Florida fan, maybe that makes this pledge based on firmer ground.
We need to be happy he isn't going to a team that we play.
Are some positions less of a priority, while others are more of a priority?
Absolutely.
However, to compete at the very top of the college football world, you have to stack talent on top of talent.
On this scale williams should be a 4 or 4 1/2.
I'm not saying that they're fake but they use religion to help them get recruits.