Please Read: Welcome to the new-look Inside the Gators
- Florida-Kentucky Breakdown & Prediction
- Weekend Visitor Preview: Linemen due in
- Recruit Reaction: Florida commit has official visit set elsewhere
- OTM: Is there a path to a fourth year
- September Superlatives
- Ranking UF’s commits from least to most likely to jump ship
- What names are on your Coaching Hot Board
Inside the Gators’ Ben McLeish and Mark Wheeler take a closer look at Saturday’s match-up between Florida and Kentucky, including thoughts on what a win or loss would mean for the Gators, Florida players to keep an eye on, as well as offering up a score prediction.
What would a win or loss mean for the rest of Florida’s season?
McLeish: A win for Florida puts the Gators back above .500. And let’s be honest, isn’t that where we expected them to be? The Gators had the hardest schedule in college football and were predicted to have a losing record. Yes, some of the hardest games are still ahead of them, but the Gators could absolutely beat Kentucky, LSU, Ole Miss, and FSU. Winning all of those games might be a stretch, but if they win three of those, they will be bowl-eligible. A win against Kentucky means that is entirely possible, but the Gators will have to take it one week at a time.
A loss for Florida makes that bowl-eligible finish much less likely. Suddenly, the Gators would have to beat LSU, Ole Miss, and FSU, unless they could pull off a miracle against Georgia or Texas. If the Gators finish below .500, it would be the 4th straight season with a losing record. That hasn’t happened for Florida since the Great Depression. The Gators would have to start asking themselves: Where is this program going?
Wheeler: It’s simple. A win puts Florida one step closer to bowl eligibility and allows Billy Napier to tread water (with his head actually above water, though he is bobbing up and down) for another week. It also gives UF some positive momentum heading into the bye week.
A loss, which would be Napier’s third straight to Kentucky, is just more justification as to why Napier isn’t the right man for the job. It also drains UF of any possible momentum heading into the bye week – which has been a Napier staple.
What are the Gators’ biggest advantages and disadvantages?
McLeish: The Gators’ biggest disadvantage is obvious. They’re without Graham Mertz. Now, DJ Lagway has incredible potential and he shows flashes of greatness. But it was clear in the Tennessee game that Lagway was not ready to be the starting quarterback against SEC teams. He does have a full week to prepare for Kentucky. But it’s impossible to get a years worth of experience in a single week. That is what Mertz brought to the table, and his consistency will be sorely missed by the Florida offense.
The Gators biggest advantage is a familiar one. They’re back in the Swamp. They almost took down Tennessee in Neyland Stadium, one of the hardest places to play in the SEC. Playing in the Swamp will be a much friendlier place for Lagway. The true freshman will be much more settled in and the fans will be chanting his name after every big play.
Wheeler: One of Florida’s advantages, maybe their biggest, is that with this being DJ Lagway’s second start, the Wildcats don’t have a lot of tape on him to gameplan against.
The biggest disadvantage is a true freshman starting at quarterback against one of the best defenses – from a numbers standpoint – that the Gators will see this season. The Wildcats currently rank No. 3 in the nation in total defense, and No. 13 in pass defense. UK held Carson Beck to 15-of-24 for 160-yards while holding Georgia to 13 points and Jaxon Dart to 18-of-27 for 261-yards while holding Ole Miss to 17 points. So, UK was able to stifle both the Bulldogs (27th) and Rebels (2nd) – and both are considerably better offensively than Florida (59th).
Who are the key players to watch for?
McLeish: For Florida, Chimere Dike has become a bonafide WR 1. Even with Euguene Wilson back from injury last week, Dike led the team in receiving yards and scored the game-tying touchdown in the fourth quarter. He also had two big punt returns that set the table for the offense. He has quickly become one of the most valuable players on the Gators’ roster. On the defensive side, Tyreak Sapp has really stepped up after a slow start. The 6’ 3” edge rusher now leads the team in sacks with 3.5 and has become a reliable run-stopper.
For Kentucky, wide receiver Dane Key has been the best offensive weapon. He started the season off slow but has three straight games with 80+ receiving yards. Kentucky doesn’t have much success in the passing game, but the Gators need to watch out for Key. On the defensive side, senior linebacker J.J. Weaver can be a game-wrecker. He has four sacks and a forced fumble and is coming off of two straight games with a sack. The offensive line will have a tough time keeping Weaver away from Lagway.
Wheeler: Florida left tackle Austin Barber has been on the availability report for the last two weeks. Though he ended up playing against Tennessee, he had his struggles, which may be because of whatever is ailing him. His backup, Devon Manual, is also on the availability report, leaving UF with precious few options if Barber struggles again.
Despite being billed as a former five-star, Kentucky quarterback Brock Vandagriff hasn’t been anywhere near as good as the Wildcats had expected or hoped after transferring in from Georgia. He isn’t particularly accurate, but he has hit some long balls. It hasn’t helped much though as he has contributed to one of the worst offenses (No. 115) in college football.
Prediction
McLeish: Seeing the defense make such a huge leap in the bye week has been reassuring. They look like a completely different unit since the UCF game. Following Kentucky’s games against Georgia and Ole Miss, and Florida’s games against Texas A&M and Mississippi State, I didn’t think Florida stood a chance against Kentucky. However, with how Florida has played against UCF and Kentucky, I think the defense has the ability to take over the game. Billy Napier will put together a simple game plan for DJ Lagway, and he will do just enough to take down the Wildcats. Florida 21-15.
Wheeler: To me, it all comes down to what version of Kentucky is Florida going to get on Saturday. If it is the Wildcats who lost to South Carolina and Vanderbilt, the Gators should be able to compete and close out a close victory. If it is the version that beat Ole Miss and lost to Georgia by just a point, UF is in trouble. Either version plays lights-out defense, and that could present a problem for DJ Lagway, making his first SEC start. Kentucky 21-17
Season-to-date Predictions
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