Florida-No. 8 Tennessee Breakdown & Prediction

Please Read: Welcome to the new-look Inside the Gators

• Florida-No. 8 Tennessee Breakdown & Prediction
• Parental Perspective: Florida Football Commits Parental RoundTable
• Recruit Reaction: Five-star wants to return
• September Superlatives
• Grading the two-deep defensive depth chart
• Grading the two-deep offensive depth chart
• OTM: Is there a path to a fourth year
• Ranking UF’s commits from least to most likely to jump ship
• What names are on your Coaching Hot Board

Inside the Gators Ben McLeish and Mark Wheeler take a closer look at Saturday’s match-up between Florida and No. 8 Tennessee, including thoughts on what a win or loss would mean for Billy Napier, Florida players to keep an eye on, as well as offering up a score prediction.

Would a win against Tennessee temporarily take Napier off of the hot seat?

McLeish: Yes. The key word is “temporarily. Yes, Napier is currently not a well-liked man around Gainesville. But if he starts winning the big games, all of his past mistakes will be quickly forgotten. The toughest games on the schedule are still ahead for the Gators, so Napier has the ability to not only save the season but save his job in the process. And it all starts with Tennessee. Since 2005, the Gators have only lost to the Vols twice (once under Napier). If Napier can start to beat some of Florida’s biggest rivals, he has a legitimate shot at remaining Florida’s head coach for another year.

Wheeler: A loss, is just more of the same, taking us further down the path to the eventual termination we all feel is coming. However, will beating a ranked rival on the road cool down Billy Napier‘s hot seat? Absolutely. Is it in itself enough to save his job? Probably not. He is currently 2-11 against the AP Top 25, 1-8 against Florida’s traditional rivals, and 3-10 away from the Swamp (3-7 in road games, 0-3 in neutral site games). Adding a win to each column may improve the percentage a little, but it doesn’t make the numbers any less atrocious overall. Now, if a win starts Florida on a roll, then maybe he deserves a closer look. The type of momentum he needs though isn’t something he has been able to sustain through his first two and a half seasons. So, we’ll tap the brakes and take this one step at a time. The first order of business is winning the game.

Is Tennessee the toughest opponent the Gators will have faced so far this season?

McLeish: No. Tennessee is a formidable foe, but one thing is holding them back. And that’s a freshman quarterback. Nico Iamaleava is very talented but his inexperience shows. Last week against Arkansas he ran out of bounds with zero seconds on the clock instead of attempting a potential game-winning pass. That’s a mistake that Cam Ward would never make. And after last week, I’m not so sure Tennessee is better than Texas A&M either. Beating the Vols on the road would still be a tough task for the Gators, but I don’t think they’re better than Miami or Texas A&M.

Wheeler: Yes and no. Considering the circumstances, maybe? While I think Miami and Texas A&M are better overall teams, Florida faced each of them in the Swamp. This will be the Gators’ first true road test of the season. There were roughly 40-45K at the MSU game and UF struggled to put them away. Now, double that number on Saturday, add more talent, and better coaching, and UF undoubtedly enters the game with some doubts. Why? Because under Napier Florida has never beaten a team with a winning record on the road. Meanwhile, Tennessee has outscored its two home opponents (Chattanooga and Kent State) 140-3 this season. Yes, they are both terrible, but so is Samford and UF wasn’t able to do anywhere near that amount of damage to the Bulldogs.

Who are the key players for Florida? Tennessee?

McLeish: For Florida, wide receiver Eugene Wilson is finally back from injury. He was projected to be the Gators’ top receiving threat, but he’s been sidelined since week three. With him recovered for such an important game, I expect him to make an immediate impact. With the emergence of Elijhah Badger and Chimere Dike, Wilson will add a new level to the passing game. On defense, look out for edge rusher George Gumbs Jr.. The former NIU tight end had a career game against UCF, tallying 1.5 sacks. He’s been one of the best Gators at generating pressure and Florida will need to put as much pressure on Iamaleava as possible.

For Tennessee, running back Dylan Sampson has been the top threat in the Vols offense. While Tennessee has a three-headed rushing attack, Sampson is by far the most successful rusher with almost 600 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns. Florida will need to find a way to stop him if they want to limit the Tennessee offense. On the defensive side, linebacker Keenan Pili is all over the field. He has the ability to plug up holes and stop the Florida rushing attack.

Wheeler: It isn’t one or two players, it is the entire defensive line. The only two games this year where the Gators have shown any effectiveness up front are against Samford and Central Florida – which just happen to be the two worst lines Florida will face this season. Last year, Florida’s defensive line had one of their best games in the win over Tennessee. Back then (and still) my opinion is that most of that had to do with the Vols being back on their heels because of the atmosphere of the Swamp, not because out of nowhere the UF line was suddenly decent. They won’t have the home crowd advantage on Saturday, but they’ll need to be as impactful as they were the last time the two teams met up.

For Tennessee, it all begins and ends with Nico Iamaleava. If Florida gives him time, he will pick the Gators apart. If they can get to him, he has shown that he will wilt under pressure.

Prediction

McLeish: Vegas has Tennessee as 14.5 point favorites. I’d be confident to pick Florida against the spread, but I don’t know if a win against UCF at home can translate to a win against Tennessee at Neyland Stadium. Florida will play well, possibly better than they have all season. But I don’t think it will be enough to beat No. 8 Tennessee. Tennessee 31-28.

Wheeler: On paper, this looks like a mismatch. Tennessee leads the SEC in scoring offense (46.0 points per game), is third in scoring defense (9.4 per game), is fourth in total offense (519 yards per game), and is first in total defense (227.6 yards allowed per game). Florida doesn’t rank in the top 10 in the league in any of those categories. However, the Gators have played a much tougher schedule (No. 26 according to Sagarin, compared to Tennessee’s No. 78). The Vols have the most impressive win, going on the road to beat a ranked Oklahoma squad. Florida does have some momentum, but it is at the expense of beating the two worst FBS teams they will face this year. Everything else points to UT, so that’s the direction I’ll go. Tennessee 41-17

Season-to-date predictions

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