Please Read: Welcome to the new-look Inside the Gators
- Orange & Blue Board Insider Eugene Wilson
- Billy Napier Wednesday Press Conference Updates
- September Superlatives
- Grading the two-deep defensive depth chart
- Grading the two-deep offensive depth chart
- Florida Football 3-2-1: How will Lagway be utilized going forward
- Recruit Reaction: I loved the tight end play
- OTM: Is there a path to a fourth year
- Ranking UF’s commits from least to most likely to jump ship
- What names are on your Coaching Hot Board
Inside the Gators Ben McLeish and Mark Wheeler take a closer look at Saturday’s match-up between Florida and UCF including thoughts on what a win or loss would mean, Florida players to keep an eye on, as well as offering up a score prediction.
What would a win or loss mean for the rest of Florida’s season?
McLeish: A win would mitigate some of the damage from Florida’s losses against Miami and Texas A&M. It seemed like the end of the world when the Gators started the season 1-2, but a win would get them above .500 for the first time in almost a year. Sure, the hardest part of the schedule is still ahead of them. But, football is played one game at a time, and 3-2 is not a bad place to be.
A loss would be the nail in the coffin for the Gators’ 2024 season. Normally I wouldn’t write off a season after just five games. But I don’t see two more wins on this schedule. Kentucky looks much tougher than people originally thought. Tennessee looks like one of the best teams in the country. A loss makes a 2-10 or 3-9 season likely.
Wheeler: A win, Florida’s third of the season, would get the Gators halfway to the magic, bowl eligibility, number of six. It would also give the Gators a winning record for the first time in a calendar year.
A loss just means more of the same. I remember seeing a shirt when Billy Napier was hired with something on the front, and taking back the state on the back. To this point, in his quest to ‘take back the state’ Napier is just 1-3 against instate programs, the lone win being a three point victory over South Florida in 2022, when they were likely the worst DI team in the nation. It is hard to imagine a scenario where Napier survives to coach UF next season if the Gators lose to UCF on Saturday.
What are the Gators’ biggest advantages and disadvantages?
McLeish: The Gators’ biggest advantage is that they’re coming off of a bye week. While UCF is coming off a tough game against Colorado last week, Florida has had two weeks to prepare for the matchup. Florida will need to capitalize on that extra preparation time.
What happens when one of the worst rushing defenses in the country faces off against likely the best? We’ll find out on Saturday, and that is the Gators biggest disadvantage. Can they stop the run?
Wheeler: The biggest advantage Florida has is that last week Colorado provided the blueprint for beating the Knights. Stop the run, and make KJ Jefferson beat you with his arm. The fly in the ointment there is that even as bad as the Buffaloes are in rush defense, the Gators are worse. So, can Florida stop the run game and force UC to throw the ball? If they can, UF should be celebrating late Saturday night.
The biggest disadvantage is I get the feeling that Colorado beating UCF may have waken the Knights up a bit, and being able to match the opponent’s intensity has been an issue during the Napier era. If UF can’t get out in front early, much like with Miami, the crowd could likely become a non-factor and we’ll see the Orange & Blue sleepwalk through another ho-hum effort.
Who are the key players to watch for?
McLeish: For Florida, Elijhah Badger has been the most consistent offensive weapon. With Tre Wilson likely still out, Badger will once again be the number-one option in the passing attack. On the defensive side, watch out for Grayson Howard, who is having a great season in his first year with Florida. He will be one of the main players tasked with stopping UCF’s prolific rushing attack.
For UCF, RJ Harvey might be the most explosive player the Gators face all year. The Knights offense will run through the senior running back. If Florida can’t stop him, he’ll get carry after carry. Pair him with dual-threat quarterback KJ Jefferson, who burnt the Gators last season with Arkansas, and the Knights have one dangerous offense.
Wheeler: Florida has a couple of defenders, particularly in the secondary, especially at safety (does that narrow it down enough) who clearly try to avoid contact if possible. I can only imagine how they are going to react to 250-pound KJ Jefferson barrelling toward them.
To that extent, to match his physicality, Florida’s Grayson Howard, whether it be spying him, or meeting him in the hole, should be a focal point of Florida’s defense on Saturday.
Prediction?
McLeish: It’s been a rough start to the season for the Gators, to say the least. If they want to turn the season around, it’s going to need to start right now. Florida has yet to have an impressive win, but a nice showing against UCF would give the players and fans some confidence about this team. With two weeks of preparation, the Gators’ offense will dominate and the defense will not let the game slip away. Florida 45-42.
Wheeler: I’ll concede, yes, Florida is terrible defensively. Yes, standing at 3-1 UCF received some votes in the Coaches’ Poll. However, record aside, home wins over New Hampshire, Sam Houston and a one point road win over TCU aren’t impressive. They are the weakest FBS program UF has faced to date. Now, does that mean UF will win? No. Mostly because Gus Malzahn on game day is better than Billy Napier on game day. Actually, if the two programs traded coaching staffs, I would say a Malzahn led UF team would eat a Napier led UCF team alive. As it is though, as it stands it should be close. Florida 31-28
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