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Inside the Gators Ben McLeish and Mark Wheeler take a closer look at Saturday’s match-up between Florida and Mississippi State including thoughts on what a win or loss would mean Billy Napier, Florida players to keep an eye on, as well as offering up a score prediction.
What would a win or loss mean for the rest of Florida’s season?
McLeish: Although a win against Mississippi State wouldn’t exactly be impressive, it would still put the Gators at .500. That’s not the worst place to be after four games. It sets up a huge matchup with UCF in the Swamp. It feels like the Gators are one disappointing loss away from imploding, but a win would keep the Gators afloat for another week.
Losing to a team that got blown out by Toledo last week would likely be the last straw in the Billy Napier era. He may not get fired after the game, but it would take a miracle for him to win back the fan base after starting the season 1-3. If the Gators can’t beat Mississippi State, how are they going to beat UCF, Kentucky, or LSU? A loss means the Gators could struggle to win three games.
Wheeler: Before the season began we thought we would be looking at games such as this as a gauge toward whether or not Florida would be on a march toward bowl eligibility. However, we’re at the point where it isn’t what a win or loss means for Florida this season or as a football program, but rather what it means for Billy Napier‘s future as the head coach of Florida football.
Much like with Samford, a win doesn’t do much for him. Hell, a week after Toledo blew the Bulldogs out of the water, even a close win doesn’t do much. A blowout is expected, and if it doesn’t happen, the heat will be turned a little more.
If there is an outright loss, Napier may not make it through the weekend.
What are the Gators’ biggest advantages and disadvantages?
McLeish: The Gators’ biggest advantage is that they’re a much better team. This will be the worst opponent the Gators face this season besides Samford. Mississippi State already has losses to Arizona State and Toledo. While both teams are 1-2, Florida has played against much stronger opponents. The Bulldogs’ head coach, Jeff Lebby, is in his first season and has yet to play an SEC opponent. As a team, the Gators have much more experience and should be prepared for the road SEC matchup.
Florida’s biggest disadvantage is having to play on the road. So far, Napier is 2-7 in away games. Even though Mississippi State may be the worst team in the SEC, it is hard to be confident about an away game. If Napier lost to Vanderbilt two years ago, he can certainly lose to Mississippi State this year. If the Gators can’t beat FBS opponents in the Swamp, how will they fare on the road?
Wheeler: Normally, you would think that playing on the road is a disadvantage, but with how things have been going lately perhaps it is to the Gators’ advantage to hit the road and put the expectations of the Gator Nation behind them to a degree. Maybe by being the away team, the players won’t feel the pressure quite as much, won’t have to worry about the boobirds, and can and will play loose.
The biggest disadvantage is that while both programs have been terrible to this point, with MSU being only three games into Jeff Lebby‘s rebuild, the Bulldog players are more likely to absorb early punches thrown by the Gators and keep fighting through it.
Florida on the other hand, if things aren’t going their way early on, do the players just start mailing it in figuring they’ve been down this road way too many times in the Napier era, and start going through the motions?
Who are the key players to watch for?
McLeish: For the Gators, Montrell Johnson Jr. will bounce back after a rough week against A&M. With the Gators unable to establish a reliable passing attack, Johnson will need to come through on the ground. Florida will lean on him early and often. On the defensive side, junior defensive end Justus Boone will look to wreak havoc on a Bulldogs’ offensive line that has already allowed 10 sacks.
For the Bulldogs, wide receiver Kevin Coleman Jr. will be the most reliable option on offense. He leads the team in yards, receptions, and touchdowns. In big situations, Coleman Jr. will get the ball. On the defense, linebacker Stone Blanton has been all over the field for Mississippi State, with 23 tackles and a forced fumble. He will make it tough for the Gators to establish a consistent run game.
Wheeler: I’ll answer it in one match-up – a potential battle between the two juniors (suffix, not class). UF cornerback Jason Marshall Jr. facing off against MSU receiver Kevin Coleman Jr. To this point in the young season, Marshall Jr. Has bounced back from a diappointing 2023 to become the Gators best player in the secondary. Coleman Jr. Is one of the top receivers in the SEC with 16 catches for 268-yards and three touchdowns.
Prediction
McLeish: Although it seems like the season can’t get much worse for the Gators, they are still a much better team than Mississippi State. They’ve allowed 71 points in two games against FBS schools. Florida will be able to bounce back and finally get the offense rolling. The defense won’t improve much, but the Gators offense will score enough points to handedly defeat the Bulldogs. Florida 35-21.
Wheeler: I know what the line is, I know what the records are, and I know what’s at stake, and I still feel like Florida is the more talented team overall. You get the feeling that the offenses will dominate, so it might come down to which defense is able to make a stop late in the game. Florida 41-38
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