Please Read: Welcome to the new-look Inside the Gators
- Ranking UF’s commits from least to most likely to jump ship
- Recruit Reaction: The most important thing for me is seeing DJ Lagway get better
- What names are on your Coaching Hot Board
Coming off a disappointingly bad loss to Miami to open the season, and then facing FCS Samford in what should have been not much more than a glorified walk-thru, all things considered, two Saturdays ago was seemingly going to be a non-consequential day for Florida football.
That was until Nick Saban went on ESPN’s College Game Day and dropped a bomb directly over the Heavener Football Complex.
“I think he’s got to change the culture,” said Saban. “I mean, the culture there is not what it needs to be in terms of the intangible things you play with, the toughness, the discipline to control the line of scrimmage. They’re not just doing those types of things. I know [Billy] Napier took over a tough situation, but hopefully, you can establish that culture in year three.”
After Napier had spent the previous eight months building up Florida’s supposed improved culture and competitive depth, and after the Hurricanes had already started a small fire, it took, arguably, the greatest college football coach in history, and at one time Napier’s employer, every bit of 30 seconds to burn that notion to the ground.
Last Monday, when asked about Saban’s remarks, Napier’s nonsensical rebuttal centered around UF needing to find success on the field to prove that the culture is where it needs to be. Which was baffling, because had he already enjoyed any modicum of success on the field, the culture wouldn’t have been questioned in the first place.
If that comes across as meanspirited or disrespectful. I promise it isn’t meant in that vein. I have posted and tweeted multiple times that I don’t know if there’s been a Florida coach who I want to see succeed more. Just listen to what he talks about, and what is important to him. Napier is a great person. He is the type of coach you want to see be successful.
His personality aside, unfortunately, to this point, he has produced subpar results.
Yet, another low was reached this past weekend.
After beating Samford to improve Napier’s record against non-P4 competition to a stellar 5-0 – reality reared its ugly head in the Swamp in the form of Texas A&M.
The Aggies raced out to a 20-0 halftime lead as Florida, coach and players alike, looked on dazed and confused.
If it were an isolated instance you might be able to forgive and forget, but Florida being outclassed has been an ongoing issue during Napier’s time in Gainesville.
The argument for keeping Napier is that somehow, some way, things are going to be different going forward.
I have to ask, based on what?
At the end of the 2023 season Inside the Gators compared Napier’s record to the previous six Florida head coaches at the same point in their UF coaching career.
It wasn’t pretty then, and it’s only gotten worse through the first three games of the 2024 season.
At 28 games in, you know what you have, or in this case don’t have, with Napier.
His resume speaks for itself:
- 12-16 overall
- 7-16 overall against FBS opponents
- 7 straight losses to FBS opponents
- 2-11 against ranked opponents
- 1-8 against traditional rivals
- 6-11 in the SEC
- 2-7 against SEC opponents away from the Swamp
Read the second statistic to yourself again. Napier has lost two out of every three games Florida has played against FBS competition. That is unfathomable. There is absolutely nothing he has done to this point that would justify having any faith in his ability to return Florida to prominence.
Out of everything, perhaps the most damning loss he’s suffered is the utter loss of faith the Gator Nation has in him turning this thing around.
Looking at the end of Will Muschamp, Jim McElwain, and Dan Mullen‘s time at Florida – there was nowhere near the consensus among the Gator Nation that a change was needed.
Certainly, it is nothing like what we’re seeing with Napier.
The reason being that the other three had enough success at certain points at Florida that it could be reasoned that what they were going through might just be a bump in the road, that they could potentially pull through and get UF back to where they previously had them.
There are no such positive results for Napier or his defenders to fall back on.
All that’s left is wishing and hoping.
What we’d all like to see happen though is never factored into the reality of a situation.
I’d like to see me with a model on my arm and a billion dollars.
Sadly, for those reading this, that is more likely to happen than Napier turning Florida into a contender.
Many argued at the end of his first season and all during his second season that Napier deserved a longer leash. Be patient, they said, give him time to get his own players in here.
However, the numbers don’t lie. The program has become less competitive as he’s replaced Mullen’s players with his own.
It’s clear he isn’t the head coach to lead Florida to anything approaching a playoff spot and his departure is a matter of when, not if it happens.
Which brings us to where we are at the present.
What’s left to be answered is where are we going?
On Monday Napier said there’s been no discussion on his future as Florida’s head coach and when asked, he said ‘100%’ that he sees a path to return for a fourth season.
The fact that he is still employed likely adds credence to his beliefs.
If they weren’t looking for a reason to bring him back next year, why is he still the head coach?
The only way I see anywhere near a 50% chance of him earning a fourth season is to finish with 6-7 wins. That would mean beating MSU, UCF, and Kentucky for sure, and if they split with FSU and LSU, it would take being able to steal a win from the quartet of Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Texas.
Anything less than that and, well, you know what they say about where nice guys finish.
He doesn't deserve or should he get another season to screw our team up any more than he already has.