Please Read: Welcome to the new-look Inside the Gators
- Five on the Spot: There’s a quarterback controversy
- Take Five Breakdown: Florida-Texas A&M Preview
- After visiting Florida, Gators commit to see Georgia this weekend
- Four-star Brown III talks Florida visit, state of the program
- Recruit Reaction: Ready to see how they bounce back and respond
- Grading the Gators: The clock is ticking
- 10 Observations: Florida Opening Day Depth Chart
- Predicting Who Plays: Seven signees most likely to avoid redshirt season
- Florida Football Preseason Superlatives
Inside the Gators Ben McLeish and Mark Wheeler take a closer look at Saturday’s match-up between Florida and Texas A&M including thoughts on what a win or loss would mean Billy Napier, Florida players to keep an eye on, as well as offering up a score prediction.
What would a win or loss mean for the rest of Florida’s season?
McLeish: A win would get Florida back on track. I don’t think many people expected the Gators to get blown out against Miami in week one. That was the worst-case scenario in Billy Napier’s make-or-break third season with Florida. But a win against A&M means the Gators are 2-1 with two winnable games coming up next on the schedule. That loss against Miami becomes more excusable after every big win. And beating an A&M team that was ranked to start the season would be a huge win for Napier.
A loss confirms everyone’s worries after the Miami game. Sure, losing to a ranked Miami team isn’t the worst thing in the world. But starting the season off 1-2 with the hardest remaining schedule in college football is a death sentence for the Gators. If the Gators can’t be A&M at home, can they beat Mississippi State on the road? Can they beat UCF at home? The games that Gator fans were confident about coming into the season suddenly don’t seem so winnable.
Wheeler: When you have a 12-15 record, you are facing a must-win scenario week in and week out. A win here over Texas A&M doesn’t solve all of Billy Napier‘s issues and doesn’t put to rest the notion that this job is too big for him, but it gives him some breathing room and allows him to advance to another week with some semblance of backing from the fanbase.
A loss, on the other hand, would be seven straight to a P4/5 program. It would drop the Gators to 1-2 (0-2 against P4/5 opponents) on the young season and really take all the air out of the fanbase. If you can’t beat an unranked Aggie squad at home, under a first-year head coach, what are the chances of getting to six or seven wins on the season?
What are the Gators’ biggest advantages and disadvantages?
McLeish:As weird as it sounds, I think the Gators biggest advantage is that they got embarrassed against Miami in week one. Billy Napier didn’t have Florida ready for the season opener, but getting blown out in the Swamp is a wake up call. The Gators might be the worse team on Saturday, but they will be angry and looking to prove that week one was a fluke. If the Gators come prepared and angry, they’ll be tough to beat.
Until they do something about it, the Gators’ biggest disadvantage will be their offensive line. Sure, it looked fine against Samford, but the Aggies’ third-string defensive linemen are likely stronger and faster than Samford’s starters. It is hard to have a consistent offense when the quarterback is constantly under pressure. And Graham Mertz is not mobile enough to escape the persistent pressure. A&M will likely generate pressure on Mertz throughout the game, making it much more difficult for him to avoid sacks and make accurate throws.
Wheeler: If you go back to Florida’s two biggest wins under Billy Napier, Utah in 2022 and Tennessee last season, they came in the Swamp, with the crowd playing an oversized part in the outcome. I assumed that would be the case in the opener against Miami. I was wrong. The crowd simply never got into the game and was never a factor. Without that to fall back on, I’d say UF’s biggest advantage is that they have to have this. The staff and players have to know that their backs are against the wall and that they are playing for Napier’s future. If that doesn’t light a fire under them, and they don’t come out with an edge, I don’t know what will.
The biggest disadvantage, much like the Miami game, is along the lines. Though the Aggies haven’t stood up well against the run the first two weeks of the season, they are actually better upfront than Miami was – and you see how much UF struggled against the Hurricane’s defensive line – even with Rueben Bain Jr. missing almost the entire game. And speaking of having a fire lit under them, you can bet Sean Spencer will have his group roaring and ready to go considering how he exited Gainesville.
Who are the key players to watch for?
McLeish: For the Gators, Elijhah Badger has had two strong weeks to start the season. He consistently gets open on deep routes and averages over 27 yards per catch. If Mertz has the time to find Badger, it will pay dividends for the Florida offense. On defense, Tyreak Sapp had a monster performance against Samford. Although A&M is a much better opponent, I expect him to keep it going. He has the ability to change the game at any point with a big sack or a forced fumble.
For the Aggies, running back Le’Veon Moss is averaging over 5 yards per carry. He will be a crucial part of the A&M offense that has thrown for less than 300 combined passing yards in their first two games. On the defensive side, edge rusher Nic Scourton could wreck Florida’s offensive game plan. Expect him to generate pressure on Mertz early and often.
Wheeler: The four players to most closely pay attention to are the four quarterbacks. Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway for the Gators and Conner Weigman and Marcel Reed for the Aggies. Who knows how many snaps any of them may get on Saturday based on injury and/or performance?
Prediction
McLeish:The Gators will be much improved from week one. The defensive line will be able to generate some pressure on the quarterback, and Florida will be able to successfully run the ball. But, returning from injury, Graham Mertz won’t be able to provide the Gators with the spark they need to take down a strong Texas A&M team. The Aggies will come into the Swamp and beat the Gators with a last minute field goal. Texas A&M 27-24
Wheeler: This is a toss-up, and I want to say Florida, I really do. Then I start to factor in Napier’s record and the fact that not only is Mike Elko considered a better defensive mind than Napier is an offensive mind, but also Jay Bateman knows Napier well. I’m sitting here thinking that the Aggies could (or maybe even should) control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. However, Florida should be fired up for this one and if they come and at least perform well enough to keep the crowd in it, that should sustain them until the end in a tight one. Florida 24-21
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