Florida Football Preseason Superlatives

Please Read: Welcome to the new-look Inside the Gators

Inside the Gators staffers Benjamin McLeish, Lance Williams, Luke Adragna, and Mark Wheeler take an in-depth look at Florida football just days before the start of the 2024 season. Here are our superlatives, predicted statistical category leaders, and our game-by-game predicted outcomes.

PRESEASON SUPERLATIVES

Who will be the Offensive MVP?

McLeish: Graham Mertz. Yes, Billy Napier’s offense will likely focus on the rushing attack. But I don’t expect Montrell Johnson to be the biggest offensive piece because he has to share snaps with Treyaun Webb and Jadan Baugh. Graham Mertz will be the most important player in determining the Gators’ success, and I expect him to take a leap in his final season.

Williams: While it’s the obvious answer, Tre Wilson will be the Gators offensive MVP in 2024. Wilson will follow his Freshman All-SEC campaign with an increased workload due to the departure of Ricky Pearsall. Florida has a history with undersized speedy receivers such as Percy Harvin and Kadarius Toney and Wilson could be next.

Adragna: Whether you’re a fan of Billy Napier’s offensive scheme or not, it’s what best fits the glue of Florida’s operation: Graham Mertz. The former Wisconsin quarterback shines under Napier’s scheme. It allows him to spread the ball all over the field to his talented receivers and hand it off when needed. If Mertz’s arm becomes more reliable on deep balls this season, he could emerge as one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in the SEC.

Wheeler: Maybe it will change as the season progresses, but as of now the player on offense who looks most capable of being able to make a play when needed most is Eugene Wilson III. Like the value provided by a basketball player who is able to create his own shot, Wilson III is the closest thing that Florida has to a home run hitter regardless of how Florida gets the ball in his hands.

Who will be the Defensive MVP?

McLeish: Linebacker Shemar James‘ presence was sorely missed after he suffered a season-ending injury against Georgia last season. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Gators lost their last four games. If he has completely recovered, James will be an instant X-factor for a Gators’ defense that looks to be much better in 2024.

Williams: Linebacker Shemar James will be a major contributor. Last season, James was the team’s leading tackler until his season-ending injury against Georgia on Oct. 28. During the Mobile, Ala. native’s absence, the Gators went 0-5 with tackling being a glaring weak point. James was Freshman All-SEC in his lone full season and could be looking towards All-SEC honors again if healthy.

Adragna: Junior tackle Cam Jackson could be the main catalyst to Florida’s defensive line finally figuring it out. The Gators produced just 22 sacks last season, seven of which came at the hands of Princely Umanmielen, who transferred to Ole Miss during the offseason. I believe Jackson will step up tremendously this season and be the anchor to a more polished defensive line.

Wheeler: While there are several questions to be answered, the biggest, at least to me, is where will the pass rush come from now that Princely Umanmielen has moved on? I go back to last year and Justus Boone was having one hell of a camp before he went down with a knee injury. Not only does he have some athleticism for an end, he has a motor. That could (maybe even should) be enough for him to lead the team in sacks and pressures.

Who will surprise on Offense?

McLeish: Arizona State fans might not be surprised if Elijhah Badger is the leading receiver for Florida this season. But this will be the first time Gator Nation gets to see Badger take the field in an orange and blue uniform. Coming off of back-to-back 700+ yard receiving seasons, Badger should be one of the primary targets for Graham Mertz this season.

Williams: Coming off an injury-plagued 2023 season, left tackle Austin Barber will be instrumental for Florida this season. Graham Mertz is a stationary quarterback, and a healthy Barber will bolster the tackle position.

Adragna: The Arlis Boardingham-Mertz connection is real. Florida’s redshirt sophomore tight end showed flashes of potential last season for the Gators. I expect Boardingam will emerge as a significant target for Mertz in the pair’s second year together, particularly in the red zone. Last season, Boardingham had a breakout game against Vanderbilt and caught seven receptions for 99 yards and two touchdowns.

Wheeler: This one is difficult because I want to say Tank Hawkins based on what he has done this fall, but when push comes to shove in real games, I don’t believe he will be taking many snaps away from Eugene Wilson III. That leaves me with KD Daniels. While Jaden Baugh received a great deal of hoopla coming out of the spring based on his big O&B Game, I still believe Daniels is currently a more complete back.

Who will surprise on Defense?

McLeish: Many fans might have forgotten about Justus Boone after he missed the entire 2023 campaign due to injury. But he made a significant impact on the field in his redshirt freshman season in 2022. Now that he looks completely healthy, I predict he will be one of the team’s primary edge rushers.

Williams: Defensive end George Gumbs Jr. will be a surprise to Gators fans in 2024. Princely Umanmielien leaves big shoes to fill after transferring to Ole Miss, but the former Northern Illinois Husky has athleticism that can help fill that void.

Adragna: After losing linebacker Scooby Williams to the transfer portal, the Gators needed to fill the void with a strong defensive replacement. They did exactly that by landing former South Carolina linebacker Grayson “Pup” Howard. Although he recorded just 18 tackles as a true freshman, Howard showed he can be a gritty defensive player who can cover all parts of the field. The former Gamecocks linebacker didn’t miss a single tackle attempt last season, which will be super valuable as a replacement for Williams, who missed 22% of tackles last year. 

Wheeler: When he transferred in from an Ivy League program I was the first to question if Joey Slackman would be able to successfully transition to facing SEC-caliber linemen. Then, in the spring what immediately caught my attention is that he has some ‘get off’ for a guy his size. I believe he will play a bigger role than some anticipate, partly because of his skillset and partly because of who I have as the player I believe will disappoint on defense.

Who will disappoint on Offense?

McLeish: Alabama transfer Damieon George Jr. had a disastrous season in his first year at Florida. But, the Gators don’t have any likely candidates to take his place as starting right guard. I don’t see George Jr. taking a gigantic leap this year, and with no one to replace him, he could struggle the entire season.

Williams: It’s doubtful that transfer receiver Chimere Dike will be able to replicate his almost 700 yard season in 2022 that he had with Graham Mertz. The fifth-year receiver will be a stable part of the offense, but Tre Wilson and Elijah Badger will attract more targets.

Adragna: Sophomore wideout Andy Jean has the intangibles of a solid receiver but never really put it together his freshman year at Florida. I believe Jean will struggle to find his role early on due to the new additions in Wisconsin transfer Chimere Dike and freshmen Tank Hawkins and TJ Abrams. Jean is also dealing with an injury and the timetable is uncertain. 

Wheeler: I don’t expect a falloff here, but I do expect Graham Mertz to pretty much have the same type of season as he had last year. That is to mean, I get the feeling that he will once again limit his exposure to poor plays by instead deciding to play it safe underneath. Some of that may be due to inadequate protection up front (I’m not sold on anyone outside of Jake Slaughter being an upper-end SEC starter at this time). You are going to have a high completion percentage when three out of every four attempts are within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage, but those dink-and-dunk plays lead to long drawn-out drives, that eventually stall out due to a mistake. The numbers don’t lie – explosive plays equate to winning football. Is Mertz willing to take more chances downfield? My gut tells me he isn’t, and that would be disappointing. We’ll see.

Who will disappoint on Defense?

McLeish: The Gators have been waiting for former five-star cornerback Jason Marshall Jr. recruit to take the next step for years now. I’m just not confident that he’s going to look any different in his senior season. The Gators will play against some of the best wide receivers in the country, and I don’t think he will be able to contain them.

Williams: Former top-ranked cornerback recruit Cormani McClain has a lot to prove, but it likely won’t be in 2024. Florida’s grueling season and the pressure on third-year head coach Billy Napier to win now does not create an environment supportive of playing McClain much this season. It would be impressive if he could regain his footing following a drama-filled season at Colorado.

Adragna: The Florida Gators took a chance on former Colorado cornerback Cormani McClain when they secured him in the transfer portal during the offseason. As a former five-star recruit who has the potential to be an All-SEC player, it seemed like a no-brainer. However, McClain struggled with off-the-field issues at Colorado, and that seems to have leaked into the beginning of his tenure with Florida. We’ll have to wait and see if this affects his playing time at all this season.

Wheeler: Looking at him, you would think that Caleb Banks is ready to contend for All-SEC honors. Then, when you see him practice, you wonder whether or not they are going to let him leave the bench area. To put it simply, his motor doesn’t match his physique. Back in the spring when we did our feature on Gerald Chatman, that was Banks he was addressing about being unhappy with his effort and body language. Then, during the second week of camp, in a display you never see, almost every defensive lineman to a man was getting on him after he quit practicing when he was called out for not giving full effort. I mean, freshmen linemen were actually getting on a redshirt junior for lack of effort. That is unheard of. To his credit, as I pointed out in two later practice updates, he seemed to have more energy. Will that carry over to the season? When things get tough, is he going to be tough enough to get going?

PRESEASON GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS

To be clear, this is how each of us feels a week before the start of the season. By the time game week actually rolls around, our picks could change.

SEASON STATISTICAL LEADER PREDICTIONS

Go to discussion...