On the Mark: Widening talent gap has to be a cause for concern

• Five Fast Thoughts: Third and Grantham
• Instant Analysis: More of the same
• Uncensored Sound-Off: Players, Media game thoughts
• Self-inflicted wounds take down Gators
• Third down woes costs Gators
• Florida-Georgia Game Thread
• Former UF football players talk UF-UGA
• Behind-the-Scenes: Florida day-by-day game week breakdown
• Mullen 20 Game Report Card: More like Mullen than McElwain
• Pitts emerging as the go-to receiver
• Expert Opinion: Can Trask learn pocket presence?
• Parental Perspective: Wilson’s return to the top
• At Florida, it’s more than football, it’s family

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While the Florida-Georgia result wasn't official until the game clock struck double-zero at 6:56 p.m. on Saturday evening, in reality the outcome was all but decided long before kick-off.

Yes,  a number such as Georgia converting 12-of-18 third down attempts was an important indicator as to how the game would end, and unquestionably helped lead to the final score. However, the numbers that mattered most - No. 2, No. 1, No. 3, No. 6 and No. 6 – the numbers that were most responsible for the final score were decided well before the first snap of the game.

Those numbers are the rankings of the last five Georgia Bulldog recruiting classes. By comparison, in that same span Florida's top rated class was the No. 9 ranking that the Gators' achieved last year.

As will be pointed out in-detail below, the simple fact that it was only a one touchdown game speaks volumes about the coaching ability of the Florida football staff.

Unfortunately (you will see that word a lot in this article) for the Gators, it also speaks about their inability to recruit.

I am a star gazer of sorts in that I am a firm believer that recruiting rankings matter. There will absolutely be kids who over and under perform their ranking, but for the most part, by percentage, the higher rated the prospect the better chance he has of succeeding.

Here are a couple of graphics to help prove the point that the cream rises to the top:

Credit Chris Hinton CBS Sports

Credit: Geoff Ketchum

The Bleacher Report did an analysis a couple of years ago that showed that almost 85-percent of the time, the more talented team, based on recruiting rankings average, would win the game.

Of course it doesn’t always hold true that the team with the best players will always win the game.

There are times when a school has simply made a bad hire.

Take for instance Willie Targgart.

During his tenure at Florida State, the Seminoles have been more talented on paper than just about every team they have faced, and many of those games they have lost.

Talent can't overcome total dysfunction and ineptitude.

On the other hand every now and then a team will rise up and surprise. South Carolina upset Georgia last month, but the Gamecocks don’t recruit at the same level as the Dawgs and Will Muschamp certainly has never been confused with being a great head coach.

It was just their day.

It happens.

If Georgia and South Carolina played 10 more times this season, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Georgia win all 10.

This is football, things happen. That is why the game is decided on the field, rather than on paper.

So, yes coaching, scheme, momentum, development, injuries and how the prospect fits all play a part, but no matter who the head coach is, more often than not, talent prevails.

What also matters is recruiting well across the board. Sometimes a team recruiting ranking can be artificially enhanced if a staff over recruits certain positions to the detriment of other positions. It may still look good on paper, rankings wise, to sign 10 top defensive backs in a class while ignoring the offensive line, but that strategy will of course come back to bite you down the road.

Unfortunately for Florida, Georgia has recruited extremely well across the board for the past several recruiting cycles.

Do you need proof of that?

I hope you are sitting down, because the following isn’t all that pretty. 

Using the 247 Sports College Team Talent Rankings, forget which team is called the Bulldogs, Florida has been and is likely to continue being Georgia’s lapdog on the recruiting trail.

There are those will point to Florida’s only losing by seven points and point to that as proof of better days ahead, but there is no way you can look at the above tables and believe that the Gators are closing the talent gap on the Bulldogs.

Think about this, the most highly rated prospect on Florida’s roster next year is a player who left Athens for Gainesville after falling down the depth chart. The Gators best prospect will be someone who transferred after he was beaten out for a position on the Bulldogs.

Now, maybe Todd Grantham and Company can bring it out of him better than the UGA staff, but damn that is a troublesome look at where the two rosters stand.

We point out and somewhat celebrate the fact that on Friday Florida moved from No. 14 to No. 10 in the 247 Composite Team Recruiting Rankings as though it is a major accomplishment that really matters, when in fact it doesn't.

The Gators leapfrogging the likes of Penn State and Oklahoma has little to no bearing on what is going to happen on the field in the next four years.

Where Florida stands in recruiting team rankings in relation to the likes of Clemson, Ohio State, Texas and Notre Dame really doesn't matter until the Gators meet them in the post season. Until then, it just boils down to having bragging rights.

When you are really looking at what matters in recruiting rankings, it isn't how UF compares against other teams across the country, most of which the Gators will never face on the field, but how they stack-up against those teams they face year in and year out.

For Florida that would be the six teams in the SEC East, Florida State and LSU first and foremost and then the secondary group consists of the top programs in the SEC West (Alabama, Auburn and Texas A&M) who have the greatest chance of playing in the SEC Championship.

Unfortunately for Florida, they are and have been getting lapped by Georgia and LSU, while FSU has gotten the better of them more often than not.

Those are three teams they face annually. 

Of the four teams I still wholeheartedly believe that in Dan Mullen, Florida has the best game day, Xs & Os, head coach.

While he was taking heat from media and fans for attempting a pass on fourth and one on the Gators opening drive - I felt like he likely felt like he was playing the percentages. That he had a much better chance of completing a pass in that situation than relying on his offensive line to get any push against a talent laden Georgia defensive line.

When you break down the prospect rankings of the offensive and defensive lines of the two squads, it doesn’t paint a pretty picture.

Seven of Georgia’s nine starting linemen were rated as four or five star prospects out of high school. Only one of Florida’s nine enjoyed the same lofty rankings.

Yes, Jonathan Greenard and Jabari Zuniga have outperformed their ranking, but Georgia simply has more outright talent along their lines.

Period.

Unfortunately (I am using that word too many times in this article) for Florida, that’s hardly the only area where the Bulldogs hold the (expanding) talent advantage.

So if there is any hope for Florida it will have to be in actual coaching ability.

I am a true-believer in Mullen. I reiterated that point in an On The Mark column the day he was hired. 

The only real issue I saw with Mullen then is still an issue today.

Since the days he was Florida’s offensive coordinator under Urban Meyer, through his stint as the head coach at Mississippi State, the knock on Mullen is that he is at best an average recruiter.

You’ll have diehards who say that’s okay, who he gets is who he wants and he will develop them enough to lead the Gators to the promised land.

My response would be to show me evidence of that.

Mullen had MSU playing well above their norm while he was the head coach in Starkville, but he still lost to teams who stockpiled more talent than his MSU squad.

As I wrote in another On the Mark, I was willing to credit him for being better than I anticipated after Florida closed strong last year to finish with a top 10 class. 

However, in the light of day, after six of the four-star signees in that class never made it to the first fall practice, it’s safe to say that the staff elevated that classes standing by taking a few kids who were borderline off-the-field and academically.

So, now the question then becomes what can be done about it?

For starters Mullen is who he is. 

He can’t significantly change his approach or personality. That would come off as looking fake.

That then leaves personnel and/or approach changes.

At LSU Ed Orgeron is the opposite of Mullen. He has never been known as a strong game day coach, he was always seen as a recruiter first and foremost. What he has done though is continued to be a strong recruiter while surrounding himself with some of the best on-the-field coaches in the conference in Joe Brady, Cam Cameron, Dave Aranda and Corey Raymond. 

Does Mullen need to follow that path? Does he need to leave his comfort zone and make some changes on his coaching staff and/or on the recruiting staff?

Does Florida need to replace a couple of current assistant coaches in order to bring in a couple of ace recruiters on the coaching staff?

Or perhaps making a run at a recruiting support staff member who better fits the mold of a Mark Pantoni or Bob Lacivita would get the Gators over the hump?

I don’t know the answer, but I do know that if Mullen doesn't make some changes somewhere, somehow, and soon, the Gator Nation is looking at more of the same when matched up against LSU and UGA for the foreseeable future.

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