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Inside the Gators Commitment Burn Barometer

May 4, 2019
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FLORIDA FOOTBALL & RECRUITING COVERAGE
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Nothing in recruiting takes place within a bubble. When prospects associated with your program, regardless of where they appear on your board, commit elsewhere, it impacts your board.

Normally the first reaction from a fan when they see a prospect who is associated with their school commit elsewhere is a sense of dread. A prospect that they wanted was taken by another school, perhaps even a rival.

Inside the Gators Commitment Burn Barometer

Eric-UF
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Mark, what are you hearing as why we seem to lose more than we win?

* note I am not saying we lose all as we have landed several elite recruits....but there has to be a reason we seem to be losing more than winning?

I've heard and inferred from many of your posts and others here at ITG that there appears to be an issue with communications and the frequency of them...is there fire to that or just smoke?

Just trying to understand what you feel the root cause is....and if it is fixable (or replaceable)...
---Go Gators!
Bd489
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I'm not sure we can say Mullen has landed any elite recruits. You have to think that is reserved for 5 stars. He has landed some good players though. Steele was a 5 star on one service, so perhaps we can count him.
SORT14
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Bd489 said:

I'm not sure we can say Mullen has landed any elite recruits. You have to think that is reserved for 5 stars. He has landed some good players though. Steele was a 5 star on one service, so perhaps we can count him.
Elite status is not reserved for 5 stars. The arbitrary limit on the number of 5 stars (composite) is ridiculous. There can be more than 30 elite players in any given class.
Bd489
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There has to be a measuring stick that all are measured by. The best of the best. Some of us bought in to the diamond in the rough recruits of randy Shannon in the prior regime. We can't afford to do that again or we fall farther behind in talent. While I don't expect us to land 2-3 5 stars per cycle, having zero consensus 5 stars on the team.
Mullen can do more with less, but you can't beat the best of the best enough to compete for national titles like that.
SORT14
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Bd489 said:

There has to be a measuring stick that all are measured by. The best of the best. Some of us bought in to the diamond in the rough recruits of randy Shannon in the prior regime. We can't afford to do that again or we fall farther behind in talent. While I don't expect us to land 2-3 5 stars per cycle, having zero consensus 5 stars on the team.
Mullen can do more with less, but you can't beat the best of the best enough to compete for national titles like that.
I don't disagree with your argument. What I do disagree with is the notion of elite status being reserved for 5 stars. There are over 1 million high school football players. To say that only 30 can be sure-fire elite is utterly ridiculous.

So what is the 'measuring stick' you are measuring all by?
Zachary.Huber
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Intern
The measuring stick I usually use for elite recruits is the top 100. Mark and I both agree that the 247 ratings are the best to use because the other two services have too many flaws. I also think two to three five-star recruits for Florida is realistic. Ultimately, that is what it is going to take for Florida to get back to the championship pedigree everyone wants without having a top-tier QB to help overcome deficiencies.
Zachary.Huber
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I think the ship has sailed for Florida to land two to three five-star recruits this cycle. Unless, something drastically changes, I don't see it happening. I want to say Mark made this point. I'm not sure, but they had a chance with Fred Davis, Demarckus Bowman. Their best chance to end the streak of not landing a five-star is with Sav'ell Smalls. There is also a chance Gervon Dexter and Leonard Manuel climb back into five-star territory. They can still also make up for not landing five star by signing more top 100 recruits.
SORT14
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Zachary.Huber said:

The measuring stick I usually use for elite recruits is the top 100. Mark and I both agree that the 247 ratings are the best to use because the other two services have too many flaws. I also think two to three five-star recruits for Florida is realistic. Ultimately, that is what it is going to take for Florida to get back to the championship pedigree everyone wants without having a top-tier QB to help overcome deficiencies.
Do you think the top 100 should be 5-stars? Why should there be an arbitrary and capricious cutoff for the number of allowable 5-stars? What if, hypothetically, 101 Percy Harvins (out of 1 million high school players) occurred in the same cycle? That last Harvin would be a 4-star because of the cutoff. Why the line in the sand?

I'm not going to go into a criticism of 247's methods because that would fall on deaf ears here. I don't think they're terrible. But there is considerable room for improvement.
Bd489
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I only was utilizing 5 stars as the measuring stick as they are the players every program battles hardest for. From the last cycle I am certainly excited about like Elam and Steele. Clearly there are others I'm hopeful will be superstars. I just want Mullen to hold his recruiters accountable for their failures. Heck, we aren't even in consistent contact with Lee, how is that possible!?
SORT14
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Bd489 said:

I only was utilizing 5 stars as the measuring stick as they are the players every program battles hardest for. From the last cycle I am certainly excited about like Elam and Steele. Clearly there are others I'm hopeful will be superstars. I just want Mullen to hold his recruiters accountable for their failures. Heck, we aren't even in consistent contact with Lee, how is that possible!?
I agree with your entire sentiment. My prevailing thought is that Mullen and UFs staff evaluate and rank potential players based on their own evaluations, which are not part of the 247 equation. As such, their process for bringing in players is not contingent upon 247s approval. I agree with every 'star gazer' that elite talent is necessary to win at the elite level consistently. I don't agree, however, with the notion that 247 has a monopoly on the determination of who is talented and who is not. Coaches, who have the skin in the game, are better at evaluating prospects along several dimensions such as good fit for their system are the ultimate authorities on talent evaluations.
Zachary.Huber
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I like how you brought up the point of how Mullen and his staff done their own evaluations. I think the fan base should trust him in particular when evaluating talent because he has done such a good job developing players once they get on campus. I also think he has done a good job finding diamonds in the rough. I also agree that fans and reporters trust 247 too much. The reason everyone agrees that they are the best out there is because they have so the most boots on the ground. Mark says that 247 puts too much stock into how players perform in a camp setting, and that is absolutely true. However, 247 does try to do their rankings based off of how many offers a recruit has. I would like to see how coaching staffs rank recruits, but it's impossible to create a ranking system like that.
upstateg8tor
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Bd489 said:

There has to be a measuring stick that all are measured by. The best of the best. Some of us bought in to the diamond in the rough recruits of randy Shannon in the prior regime. We can't afford to do that again or we fall farther behind in talent. While I don't expect us to land 2-3 5 stars per cycle, having zero consensus 5 stars on the team.
Mullen can do more with less, but you can't beat the best of the best enough to compete for national titles like that.

How are we falling further behind? In 2 cycles the staff has upgraded the roster +19 blue chips. We signed more blue chip prospects this last cycle than Muschamp ever did. And everyone keeps pointing out what a great recruiter he was. Both our talent level and depth has improved dramatically since Mullen arrived. I'm not sure where this myth keeps coming from.
Bd489
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I was comparing to the teams that are in the hunt for the national championship and just the sec in general. We finished top 10 in recruiting last year but 5th (I believe) in sec recruiting. We are adding talent but we are also still not gaining ground on the leaders in the conference. I don't think it's a stretch to think we will finish this seasons class behind LSU, bama, Georgia and possibly Texas a&m.
We missed on players at positions of need in DT (top 100 players should have seen immediate playing time and pounced) and in the last 2 season 2 5 star backs that are both from Florida. I like Mullen and think he will do well here, but the bump class used to be the first full class and now we are probably waiting until 2021 for an elite signing class.
Not trying to be negative, just trying to be realistic in what is happening. On another thread our former rb commit lee is barely hearing from us. We recruited him hard enough he committed so we clearly want him, but now he isn't hearing from us much. Mullen as the ceo of the program has to know these are missteps his recruiters shouldn't be making and fix that.
upstateg8tor
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We jumped from 35 blue chips in 2018 to 47 this last signing class. Improved the roster from 41% BCs to 55%. How is that not gaining ground?

Again, some of you guys get caught up in the rankings but completely ignore the more important data underneath it. Going from a roster of 28 blue chip players to 47 in 2 cycles an incredible improvement in a short amount of time and can't be overstated.

As far as this current class goes ...we still have 8 months. It seems we go through this every year in May, only to feel silly about all the angst 8 months later. Signing day isn't tomorrow.
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