On the Mark: Playing with numbers comparing talent level

Nov 2, 2022 | 3 comments



Though there were warning signs that a storm was brewing beforehand, perhaps the beginning of the end last year was when Dan Mullen awkwardly answered a question about in-season recruiting. Despite what happened on the field, Georgia’s Kirby Smart‘s rebuttal that you can’t out-coach recruiting was perhaps the biggest defeat Mullen took from Smart.

The truth today, as it was then, you can’t out-coach recruiting.

Unless there is a generational type of quarterback involved, those who sit atop the recruiting rankings more often than not also sit atop the College Football Playoff rankings.


Three years ago, after Florida lost to Georgia, we took a closer look at the talent differential between the two schools.

Now, after another lopsided loss, we’re revisiting where the two programs currently stand talent-wise utilizing the 247 Composite Rankings and College Team Talent Rankings.

(Note: For the best view turn your smartphone horizontally)

SATURDAY’S STARTING LINEUP BREAKDOWNFive-starFour-starThree-star95 or above ranking
Florida41085
Georgia612410
Jalen Carter, perhaps the best overall prospect on either team would have added a seventh five-star for Georgia, but he isn’t included in the numbers above since he didn’t start the game. Georgia doesn’t have as big a lead in the number of five-star starters as they did three years ago, but they still have a significant lead in the number of Top 100 starters.

 

CURRENT CONSENSUS FIVE-STAR PLAYERS2019202020222023  (Commits)
Florida1150
Georgia1416151
While he didn’t recruit at a high level, all five of the five-stars who are on Florida’s roster were brought in by Dan Mullen, narrowing that very significant gap with Georgia. To this point in this cycle the Bulldogs have one five-star commit, while the Gators don’t currently have one. Looking ahead a couple of months, there are no five-stars UF is seriously in the mix for, but UGA could still add a couple.

 

95.00 RATING AND ABOVE (TOP 100 TYPE PROSPECTS)2019202020222023 (Commits)
Florida1414163
Georgia2835369
This number has stayed somewhat steady with Georgia starting out with a 2-to-1 lead, widening a bit in 2020, but narrowing this year. However, UGA has a 3-to-1 ratio lead over UF in this cycle to date.

 

COMBINED ROSTERS TOP 30 RATED PLAYERS BREAKDOWN 201920202022
Florida626
Georgia242824
In this ranking we take the top 30 players, starters, backups, and those who played or didn’t play in the game, this is how the top 30 players on the roster break down. Basically, Florida is back to where they were in 2019

 

COMBINED TOP 10 COMMITS IN THIS CYCLE20202023 (To date)
Florida23
Georgia87
We have to wait to see what happens with prospects such as Qua Russaw, James Smith, and Samuel M’Pemba before we know how this turns out.

AJ Harris 0.9854
Joenel Aguero 0.9816
Raylen Wilson 0.9758
Monroe Freeling 0.9741
Troy Bowles 0.9719
Kelby Collins 0.9651
Aidan Mizell 0.9630
Pearce Spurlin 0.9569
Dijon Johnson 0.9554
Gabriel Harris .9529

Talent Defieceny is the cause of Florida’s third-down defense

Two things can be true at the same time.

Florida has more than enough talent on defense to avoid being atrocious on third down and without having a full cycle to their name, Billy Napier and staff have recruited well enough that there will be a talent upgrade next season on the defense.

Defensive starting lineup recruited by Mullen and staff over 3 1/2 cycles
Highest rated prospect per position recruited by Napier and staff over – to this point – two partial cycles
DEUmanmielen.9117Collins.9651
DTDexter  .9946Norman.9241
DTWatson   .8891McClellan.9536
JackCox  .9867Searcy.9287
LBMiller  .8640James.9715
LBBurney.9293Robinson.8933
StarJohnson   .8800Denson.9169
STorrence   .8950Castell.9220
SDean   .9222Wilson.9807
CBMarshall   .9855Johnson.9555
CBHill  .8969Jackson .9401

 

RankingMullenNapier
Five-star30
Four-star611
Three-star20
Top 100 (.95 or above)37
Average per player.9231.9410

Notes:

  • A .9231 average is the equivalent of being the No. 203 ranked prospect on the 247 Composite. A .9410 is the equivalent of being ranked the No. 142 ranked prospect in the nation
  • Included on Napier’s side are prospects who are committed, but not yet signed. Also, they could add a couple of defenders down the stretch that would replace a couple of players listed above
  • Though he has yet to be at Florida for an entire recruiting cycle, Napier’s signees/commits are more highly ranked in seven of the 11 positions
  • Ventrell Miller was thought of as a borderline four-star prospect but missed his senior season with a knee injury
  • The talent upgrade in the secondary is the most obvious. The starters recruited by Mullen feature one Top 100 prospect in Marshall. Napier has already added two, and one who is on the borderline. 

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