Grading the Gators Class of 2023 – A lot like Mullen’s first full class

(Photo courtesy Florida Football Recruiting Support Staff)

• 2023 Signing Class Superlatives
• Parental Perspective: A football family
• Class of 2023 Signee Bios
• Watch & Read: Billy Napier Signing Day Press Conference
• Florida’s class ranked 9th-to-12th
• Watch: A behind-the-scenes look at Caden Jones’ Florida official visit
• Watch: Florida’s 10 Most Important Commits
• Regular Season Report Card: Napier has a Muschamp like first season
• Florida players to keep an eye on as Portal Season is set to kick off
• Evaluating the Class of 2022

Normally Grading the Gators is reserved for Inside the Gators to look back on the previous day’s football game. We’re going to switch up somewhat today and use it to take a more in-depth look at Florida’s Early Signing Class of 2023.

Keep in mind, there are six weeks remaining in this recruiting cycle, these are not the final grades – they are based upon the prospects Florida has signed to this point.

(This article was originally published on December 23, immediately after the Early Signing Period. It is being updated to include the late addition of Caden Jones as well as the loss of Jaden Rashada while adding the Transfer Portal Signees in the position-by-position grades)

——-

GRADING THE GATORS

(Note: The below tables are best viewed by turning your smartphone horizontally)

DEFINING MOMENTS

5) Florida finally sees progress with facilities
Talk about a case of Deja Vu. Coming in at No. 5 for Napier’s first full cycle is the exact same headline we used back in 2019 for Dan Mullen‘s first full cycle. Back then it was a simple upgrade to the locker room that had commits and targets talking. This time around it is a completely brand new football facility – that has a wow factor times 10. However, just like when the Heavener Complex debuted, you have to get as much bang for your buck as you can right off the bat because, in a never-ending arms race, the spectacular becomes routine in no time at all. Since UF opened their new facility a couple of months ago, Auburn has opened a $92 million dollar facility and earlier this month Florida State broke ground on a new facility.

4) Summer fun
Half of Florida’s signees (10 out of 20) committed during a six-week period spanning the summer months of June and July. Before Knijeah Harris started the party on June 20th (actually Tommy Kinsler jumped on board a day earlier, but he decommitted a couple of weeks later), Florida fans were rightfully wondering what was going on as the Gators. At that point they had a holdover in Aaron Gates, and the new staff had only added Bryce Lovett, Creed Whittemore, and Tyree Patterson – not exactly a murder’s row of pledges.  That all changed when summer official visit, and summer camp sessions, began.

3) Florida learned to say in their lane
Here we go again. The second of the first three defining moments matches up with what Mullen did in his first full class. Back in 2019, only two of the 21 early signees came from outside Florida’s primary recruiting area. Napier and Company took it to another level with 17 of the 20 signees coming from Florida and Georgia. Here in the age of the transfer portal, the closer you can stick to home, where the players are more familiar with the culture and surroundings, the better chance they have of acclimating to the program and thus sticking around through the inevitable bumps in the road.

2) Disappointment down the stretch
When Jaden Rashada flipped from Miami to Florida in early November – the future was definitely bright. If just a couple of things fell their way it looked like the Gators were well on their way to a top-five finish. However, down the stretch, nothing else went as hoped or expected as target after target ended up elsewhere and UF finished up with the No. 10 rated class on the On3 Consensus.

1) Drama-filled cycle at quarterback
Can you ever remember a cycle where there was so much drama at one position? It started with Florida having to part ways with Marcus Stokes after he released a video of him singing a no-no word in a rap song and ended with the Jaden Rashada fiasco – which we probably not know the true story behind until ESPN does a 30 for 30 years down the road.

BY THE NUMBERS  ​​​​

• 80% – 16 of the 20 signees are enrolling early.
• 70% – 14 of the 20 early signees are from the state of Florida.
• 40% –  Of the 20 early signees 8 are on offense.
• 60% – Of the 20 early signees 12 are on defense.
• 80% – 16 of the 20 early signees are rated as four-stars.
• 10 – This is where Florida is ranked in the On3 Consensus team rankings.
• 4 – Florida is ranked No.4 in the SEC.
• 5 – Florida’s 91.55 average ranking per signee is ranked No. 5 in the nation.
• 3 – In Collins (No. 59), Rashada (No. 65) and Mizell (No. 96) Florida signed three prospects inside the On3 Consensus Top 100 prospects in the nation.
• 1 – Of the 24 instate prospects ranked on the On3 Consensus Top 100, Florida signed just one (Adian Mizell)
• 0 – Florida signed zip, ziltch, none, nada, of the top 20 prospects from the Sunshine State.

Note: On3 did not include Tony Livingston in the class, so he is not included in the numbers above

THE BOTTOM LINE

As I stated above, I feel like there are so many similarities between Napier’s and Mullen’s first full classes, so some of what you read below will be similar to what I wrote to recap Mullen’s first class.

To be clear, recruiting in this cycle isn’t over yet. With six weeks remaining until National Signing Day, Florida could still add a signee or two (hello Caden Jones). However, for the most part, the heavy lifting is behind us. There are no unsigned players in the On3 Consensus Top 300 that Florida is currently a factor for (though former commit Raymond Cotrell may be worth keeping an eye on).

With that being the case, it’s time to see where Florida stands – not necessarily nationally – but rather in comparison to the programs they actually have to face on an annual basis.

The teams in the SEC and Florida State.

As for me, I am an absolute stargazer. I believe that on average the most reliable indicator of a prospect’s future success is the number of stars by their name. I think Florida did a great job in getting Dexter and Wingo regardless of whether it was early or late, not because of the timing, but because of the number of their ranking. The opposite is true of Brown. I didn’t think much of him when he visited and wasn’t bothered by the fact that he went elsewhere. It’s nothing against him personally, but the stars indicate that, on average, there are better options.

As an example, as we do each year, we broke down the All-SEC First Team by stars. 18 of the 22 first-team members were ranked as a four or five-star coming out of high school. Going on average across the nation, a five-star is over 45 times more likely to be named All-SEC compared to a three-star.

Those type of numbers proves true down the line as you start comparing the awarded stars of first-round draft choices.

The bottom line is the higher ranked the player, on average, the better chance he has of being successful.

With this class, it feels like Florida drove down the field for a touchdown but then missed the extra point. Yes, you feel good about putting points on the board, but you also feel like you left points out on the field.

Having said that, without question this class is a step forward for Florida. Last year the Gators had the No. 20 class in the nation, this year they are ranked No. 10. Last year UF had two consensus top 100 prospects signed, this year they have three.

While Florida has helped itself overall and bolstered a couple of positions that were areas of need, this class, to this point, hasn’t gotten Florida closer to the promised land of toppling LSU and Georgia.

That isn’t to say that Florida can’t pull an upset, but Kirby Smart said it best when he said ‘You can’t outcoach recruiting.’

He is correct.

Now, plenty can happen between now and when those games are played in the future, including another signing day six weeks from now, the transfer portal, injuries, etc… However, on paper today, those elite programs have once again out-recruited the Gators.

Florida and the programs the Gators play each year (Florida State, LSU, UGA, and Tennessee) combined to sign 26 prospects of the On3 Consensus Top 100 prospects in the nation. Of these four programs, Florida did better than one (FSU) while at the same time being absolutely lapped by the Bulldogs with 12. That big number is put further into focus when you realize that UGA had six signees ranked higher than Florida’s highest-ranked signee.

Top 100 nationally SEC signee breakdown
#6 Nico Iamaleava – TN
#20 Damon Wilson – UGA
#21 Nyckoles Harbor – SC
#22 Zalance Heard – LSU
#25 Jordan Hall – UGA
#29 Raylen Wilson – UGA
#32 Monroe Freeling – UGA
#34 Hykeem Williams – FSU
#39 AJ Harris – UGA
#42 Dashawn Womack – LSU
#44 Samuel M’Pemba – UGA
#45 Kelby Collins – FLA
#47 Joenel Aguero – UGA
#51 Daevin Hobbs – TN
#55 Ja’Keem Jackson – FLA
#59 Javien Toviano – LSU
#67 Gabe Harris – UGA
#68 Pearce Spurlin – UGA
#75 Nathan Leacock – TN
#76 CJ Allen – UGA
#79 Jalen Brown – LSU
#80 Shelton Sampson – LSU
#88 Troy Bowles – UGA
#90 Caleb Herring – TN
#91 Tyler Williams – UGA
#100 Aidan Mizell – FLA

And, God forbid if Florida has to face Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, where they will go up against the 14 Top 100 signees the Tide wrangled in this cycle. At this pace, it will take the Gators five cycles to do what Bama did this year alone.

There has to be a more even distribution of top talent if Florida is to catch up to, much less surpass LSU, and especially the Dawgs.

Georgia (seven) actually signed more On3 Consensus Top 20 prospects from the state of Florida than the Gators (zero) did.

Top 20 instate signee breakdown

Georgia – 6
Miami – 3
Alabama – 3
Ohio State – 2
Colorado – 1
Florida – 1
Florida State – 1
LSU – 1
Oklahoma – 1
Texas – 1

That is unacceptable.

To this point, this class feels a lot like Mullen’s first full class. It is good to very good, but it simply isn’t good enough if the Gators want to reach the promised land of the College Football Playoff.

There aren’t enough unsigned top-end prospects for the Gators to play catch up this time around, but if the next cycle looks anything like this one, Florida has little to no chance of supplanting UGA.

That’s just reality.

COMPARING MULLEN’S & NAPIER’S FIRST FULL CLASS

To be clear, this is a comparison of the two classes on signing day. There is no argument that so and so didn’t qualify or make it past the first year because you have no way of knowing who in this class may or may not qualify or make it past the first year. And, if you do have a crystal ball that looks into the future, please message me before tonight’s lottery drawing.

(Note: The below tables are best viewed by turning your smartphone horizontally)

* Note: 2019 commit Arjei Henderson is not ranked at all by the On3 Consensus that cycle
* Note: Tony Livingston isn’t included by On3 as part of Napier’s 2023 class
* Note: Deyavie Hammond wasn’t assigned a rating in the Class of 2019, but he was assigned a ranking (#269). Therefore, for our purposes he was given the same rating as the #269 ranked prospect this cycle (90.72)