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Inside the Gators staffers Jackson Colding, Andres Rodriguez, and Mark Wheeler take a closer look at Saturday’s match-up between No. 8 Florida and No. 25 Missouri, including what a win or loss would mean for Florida, advantages and disadvantages, players to watch, and a score prediction.
What would a win or loss mean for Florida?
Colding: A win for No. 8 Florida would mean this team is one of the frontrunners to reach the College Football Playoff in the SEC. Starting 5-0 overall and 3-0 in conference play would also put them as a team who could potentially play in the SEC Championship Game. Winning a second-straight conference road game would also show Florida has the ability to handle success on the national stage. Winning this game would prove Florida’s status as a national contender to reach and win games in the playoff. Losing this game doesn’t derail your season, but it puts added pressure to defeat the two highest ranked teams remaining on the schedule. A win allows Florida to win 10 games, even with losses to No. 1 Texas and No. 2 Georgia. A loss means you have to win at least one of those games to stay alive in the playoff discussion.
Rodriguez: A win would continue the hot streak that Florida is on and give them two things they have not done since 2019, a win at Missouri and a 5-0 start. However, the Gators have lost 13 straight ranked road games. Jon Sumrall has proven his guys are locked in and with Buster Faulkner at the helm of this offense, a win here could prove a lot. The Gators would continue their undefeated streak into homecoming and could potentially take it all the way to a matchup at No. 1 Texas. A loss here would hurt the Gators, and it would push the narrative that they do not deserve to be ranked in the top 10. Florida would also lose AGAIN at Missouri and would put them at a huge disadvantage come the Texas and Georgia games.
Wheeler: A win means a 5-0 start to the season and a continuation of Florida’s meteoric rise up college football’s 2026 hierarchy. The Gators are currently seen as a good bet to make the CFB Playoffs, and if they win this weekend, it would take a collapse to keep them out. A loss this weekend doesn’t sink Florida’s ship, but it absolutely changes the narrative.
What are the Gators’ biggest advantages and disadvantages?
Colding: Florida’s biggest advantages is their ability to dominate while running the ball and a steady presence at quarterback. The ability for Florida to dominantly run the ball has remained constant throughout the first four games. Junior running back Jadan Baugh and sophomore running back Duke Clark each rushed for over 100 yards against Ole Miss. Baugh had 142 yards and three touchdowns, while Clark had a 45-yard touchdown run and 126 total yards rushing. The explosive ability of Florida’s running backs and an offensive line that has improved each week will be a tough combination for any team Florida plays to deal with. Junior quarterback Aaron Philo has been a steady presence at quarterback through the first four games. He has thrown two interceptions, with both hitting his receivers in the hands. He hasn’t had many plays where he’s put the ball in danger to start the season, which has been all Florida’s needed to have success. He has thrown for 917 yards and seven touchdowns through the first four games, along with three rushing touchdowns. Through the first third of the season, he has been able to spread the ball to his playmakers effectively, and this will be a key advantage for Florida in a road game against a ranked opponent. The biggest disadvantage lies in the secondary, as the cornerbacks haven’t been consistent through the first four games. Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss still threw for almost 300 yards against Florida, and there were multiple long deep passes that led to touchdowns later in the drives. Consistency will be key for the cornerbacks to be able to contain the Missouri offense and allow Florida’s offense to control the game.
Rodriguez: The Gators biggest advantage is their running back room. We all saw them rush for over 300+ rushing yards in a top 5 upset at the Swamp against Ole Miss and I expect them to do the same in Columbia. Jadan Baugh has been at a Heisman level all year and now with another beast behind him in Duke Clark, this running back room has easily become the best in the country. The fact that you can take Baugh out of the game and continue to have big rushes and even big touchdowns is huge for a run-heavy Gators team. Once again, their biggest flaw is penalties. Against Ole Miss, the Gators committed eight penalties for 92 yards, with the big one being a touchdown called back. In a hostile away SEC environment, those six points could end up being the difference of a win or a loss. Last time Florida played away, they committed 16 penalties for 138 yards, so they can not do the same if they want to win this game.
Wheeler: A huge advantage for Florida is that for the second week in a row the Gators’ beleaguered defense will get to avoid facing one of the top returning running backs in the nation. Last week Kewan Lacy sat out Ole Miss’s loss to the Gators. This week, it’s Missouri’s Ahmad Hardy who is sidelined. Normally, what could be seen as a potential disadvantage would be that UF could suffer a bit of a hangover after the huge win over then No. 4 Ole Miss, while No. 25 Missouri was brought down off their high with a loss to Mississippi State. In this case though, I get the feeling that the players are buying into Jon Sumrall‘s one week at a time approach.
Who is a key player or two for Florida? Missouri?
Colding: The key players for Florida are senior wide receiver Eric Singleton Jr. and senior cornerback Cormani McClain. Last week Singleton Jr. was Florida’s leading receiver despite limited action, recording a catch for 38 yards. Coach Jon Sumrall said Singleton Jr. will be a full participant during practice this week, and it will be important for Singleton Jr. to get fully integrated back into the offense for this game. Singleton Jr. being able to get involved against Missouri will help increase Florida’s chances of beating Missouri. He’ll be able to create space for the rest of the receivers with his speed, and this will help unlock another element in Buster Faukner’s offense. McClain being able to be consistent on a play-to-play basis will be key for the success of Florida’s defense. Defensive coordinator Brad White said McClain has to be consistent every play. Bringing consistency each play will help Florida’s defense grow, and if they aren’t consistent, Missouri’s offense will make the secondary pay. The two key players for Missouri are senior quarterback Austin Simmons and sophomore edge Daeden Hopkins. Simmons is in his first full season as a starting quarterback, as Chambliss replaced him at Ole Miss after Simmons went down with an injury. Simmons has thrown for 947 yards and 11 touchdowns. He has thrown no interceptions, and Missouri will need him to continue being efficient as a passer to keep pace with Florida’s offense. Hopkins has 14 tackles on the season, but six sacks. He’s coming off his biggest game of the season against Mississippi State, where he recorded three and a half sacks. His ability to put generate pressure will be key for Missouri to be able to contain an explosive Florida offense that hasn’t scored less than 40 points in a game.
Rodriguez: Two key players for the Gators will be Jayden Woods and Duke Clark. On the defensive side of the ball, Woods and the rest of the defense need to get pressure on the quarterback. Austin Simmons has not thrown an interception this year and his O-line has done a good job at protecting him. On the offensive side, Duke Clark needs to build on the damage he did to Ole Miss last week. Clark joined fellow running back Jadan Baugh with over 100+ rushing yards and Baugh needs to rest. It is key for the Gators to be able to take Baugh out of the game and continue to perform well offensively. A key player for Missouri is Austin Simmons. As I said before, Simmons has not thrown an interception. Instead, the Ole Miss transfer has thrown 947 passing yards and 11 passing touchdowns. If he wants to upset the No. 8 ranked Gators, he must continue to play at the level he has been playing at all year.
Wheeler: It might be the easy way out, but again I think this comes down to the quarterbacks. Both teams do a good job of protecting their signal callers; and neither Aaron Philo or Austin Simmons (a one time Florida commit back in 2023) are careless with the ball. Which one of these two blinks first and has their worst game of the season?
Prediction
Colding: This will be the first time I deviate from my preseason prediction, as I originally picked Missouri to win this game. Florida, however, will win this game because their offense hasn’t been stopped, or even contained in the first four games. Florida’s dominance running the ball will continue, as Mississippi State rushed for almost 140 yards on Missouri. Even though this will be another tough road test, Florida will be able to slow down and simplify the game at the beginning with its ability to run the ball to open up explosive plays and wear down the Tigers. Florida was able to contain Trinidad Chambliss and the Ole Miss offense in their last game, and the defense will be able to get the necessary stops to win this game. Florida 41-31
Rodriguez: I’m 4-0 to start the year (the only one of us three) and I look to continue my hot streak along with the Gators. I think Jadan Baugh and Duke Clark will break through Missouri’s run defense. Florida wins for the first time at Missouri in seven years and heads into a homecoming game against a struggling South Carolina 5-0. Florida 41-21
Wheeler: Not to make this about me, but after suffering two losses in a row, I am currently sitting at a pathetic 2-2 on the season. As bad as I’ve ever been in the decade we’ve done these Breakdown & Prediction features. After picking against the Gators the last two weeks, in order to get back on the winning side, I’ll jump on the Jon Sumrall bandwagon this weekend. Plus, there’s also my beliefe that with or without Vernell Brown III, UF’s offense is going to be difficult to stop. Florida 35-17
Season-to-date Predictions
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