Please Read: Welcome to the new-look Inside the Gators
- Getting to Know: Davin Davidson
- Florida Football Preseason Superlatives
- Former Florida Football Player Roundtable I
- Post-Fall Camp Ranking of Florida position-by-position
Inside the Gators staffers Jackson Colding, Andres Rodriguez, and Mark Wheeler take a closer look at Saturday’s match-up between No. 21 Florida and No. 4 Ole Miss, including what a win or loss would mean for Florida, advantages and disadvantages, players to watch, and a score prediction.
What would a win or loss mean for Florida?
Colding: A win for Florida could get people talking about a real path to the College Football Playoff for this team. Starting 4-0 for the first time since 2019 and a top-five win would provide momentum toward the rest of the season. A win against Ole Miss would provide a real path for Florida to achieve 10 wins, as the next two highest-ranked games are against No. 1 Texas and No. 2 Georgia. A win in this game for Florida would show they are a legitimate team to worry about in the SEC. A loss in this game isn’t as detrimental to the team as losing to Auburn would’ve been. Ole Miss is ranked fourth in the AP Poll, and they have a potential Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback in Trinidad Chambliss. A 3-1 start to the season still provides you with potential to win a lot of games and play meaningful football late into the season.
Rodriguez: A win for Florida would mean a LOT, especially when the win comes against the No. 4 team in the country. The last time the Gators beat a top 5 team in the country was November of 2020 when they beat #5 Georgia, and the last time they beat a top 5 team at the Swamp was #3 Ole Miss in 2015. It’s a case of potential deja vu for Florida, and a win here could have postseason implications. A loss would hurt; you never want to lose at home, especially when you are favored by 3.5 points. However, like last week, a loss would not be the end of the world. Ole Miss is #4 in the country for a reason, and they won’t back down so easily, especially with Trinidad Chambliss at the helm.
Wheeler: A win here, no matter the final margin, might be Florida’s biggest victory in the Swamp since blowing out Ole Miss 38-10 back in 2015. Yes, even bigger than beating No. 9 Ole Miss in 2024 (UF’s season was all but over at that point with five losses), or No. 9 Texas last season (UF entered that game at 1-3). While those victories over ranked opponents provided the previous regime some breathing room and helped delay the inevitable, a win on Saturday would move UF to 4-0 and give them a springboard to a much better-than-expected season. It would be a reason for hope, not just to stop the bleeding. Also, it would certainly boost the Gators into the Top 15 in the AP Poll, and would put them squarely in the CFP picture as the early season rankings begin being released. The bottom line, it would give the Gator Nation something to believe in for the first time in years. A loss to the No. 4 team in the nation doesn’t really change anything for the Gators.
What are the Gators’ biggest advantages and disadvantages?
Colding: The biggest advantages for the Gators are having a dominant running game and skill players. Junior quarterback Aaron Philo has been able to effectively get the ball to. Junior running back Jadan Baugh has been the main source of Florida’s dominance on the ground. In each of the first three games, he has recorded explosive runs, which has made the offense more dynamic. He has 458 rushing yards through the first three games, and he is someone Florida will be able to lean on against a top-five opponent. Sophomore wide receivers Vernell Brown III and Dallas Wilson have become focal points of Florida’s offense. They were an advantage for Florida heading into the matchup against Auburn, and their ability to perform on the road against the Tigers has made this an even bigger advantage for Florida heading into this matchup against the Rebels. The biggest disadvantages are being on the opposite side of Chambliss and on the offensive line. Chambliss poses a threat to Florida’s secondary that they haven’t faced yet. Auburn quarterback Byrum Brown was able to move the ball on Florida’s defense last week, and giving up 39 points to Auburn before facing Chambliss will force Florida to make adjustments in the secondary. If the secondary fails to make adjustments, then Chambliss will be able to dictate the game. Florida’s offensive line still has to clean up penalty mistakes from the SEC opener against Auburn. They committed seven penalties, and while it didn’t prove to be costly against Auburn, Ole Miss will make them pay if they commit multiple penalties of over 10 yards.
Rodriguez: The Gators’ biggest advantage once again is their offense. You can’t ever pass up an offense that is averaging 54 points per game. Aaron Philo will look to keep his hot streak up against an Ole Miss secondary that has looked shaky at times. Vernell Brown lll and Dallas Wilson have looked like a top receiver duo in the country. Lastly, Jadan Baugh is inevitable. However, you can’t credit Baugh without crediting the offensive line for holding up the blocks. I think the Gators will keep it up against the Rebels. Penalties have been the bane of Florida’s existence, and that was the reason the final score of the Auburn game was as close as it was. 16 penalties for 138 yards is unacceptable, and Sumrall said it himself. If sloppy play continues, the Rebels have a big chance to win at The Swamp.
Wheeler: Florida has several advantages (Jadan Baugh against a Rebels run defense that has trouble tackling being right up there), but the biggest is being at home, where I would expect this atmosphere to be absolutely peak. I am talking about going back to the Urban Meyer and Steve Spurrier type of craziness in the Swamp. Look, not all announced sellouts are created equal. I’ve been on the sidelines for what was supposed to be a sold-out Swamp and saw many open seats and a lackluster crowd. On the other hand, I was as impressed with this season’s opening day crowd as I have been in years with any home game in years. They were there early and were incredibly into the game. They made a difference. They can be the tipping point this Saturday if they bring the same excitement as game one. I really only have one huge disadvantage for the Gators. Trinidad Chambliss (who I despise for shopping for a friendly judge to gain another year) has to be licking his chops with the way UF’s pass defense looked against FAU and Auburn. I don’t believe UF shutting him down is within reason. Can they hold him to under 300 yards is a more realistic question.
Who is a key player or two for Florida? Ole Miss?
Colding: The key players for Florida are senior cornerback Cormani McClain and junior center Harrison Moore. McClain showed inconsistency against Auburn, as he had an interception of Brown on the opening drive, jumping the route on the play. At the end of the game, however, he didn’t make a play on the ball on a fourth-down heave from Brown to wide receiver Chas Nimrod. These inconsistencies are something McClain will have to clean up against Ole Miss, as Chambliss and his receiving core will make Florida pay more consistently for any mistakes they make. Moore won SEC Offensive Lineman of the Week for his performance against Auburn, but he will have to translate that performance to this weekend against Ole Miss, as the defensive lines Florida is facing are only getting better. Florida had penalty issues on offense against Auburn, and as the anchor of the offensive line, Moore will have to set the tone in decreasing the amount of penalties taken by his unit. The two key players for Ole Miss are Chambliss and junior defensive tackle Will Echoles. Chambliss has been electric to start the season, and he is coming off a performance against LSU where his playmaking was a deciding factor in his team winning. His arm strength, accuracy, and mobility are three things that can beat Florida on Saturday, even if Florida’s offense is able to score points regularly. The biggest key for Florida’s defense is to contain Chambliss as much as they can. Echoles is the anchor of their defense, and he will look to cause problems for Florida’s offensive line. He will be someone the Florida offensive line has to block effectively for Baugh to be as effective as he’s been on the ground in the first three games.
Rodriguez: There are two players I’m looking at in this matchup. It’ll be a Heisman battle in the Swamp between Jadan Baugh and Trinidad Chambliss. Baugh has been lighting it up for the Gators, tying his 2025 touchdown mark in just three games so far. Against Auburn, the junior rushed for 162 yards and three touchdowns, with one of those being a 4th-and-1 dagger. On the other side, Chambliss is the frontrunner for the Heisman and has been electric so far. In just three games, he has racked up 924 passing yards and 7 touchdowns. Both players will play huge roles on Saturday.
Wheeler: There’s no need to write a book on this or break down head-to-head positional matchups. I’ll go ahead and go with the most obvious. If Trinidad Chambliss runs roughshod over the Florida defense, then Ole Miss wins going away. If UF can keep him somewhat in check, the Gators stand a chance of walking out of the Swamp with a W. As far as Aaron Philo, no one expects him to carry the load; that isn’t who he has shown to be. That job belongs to Jadan Baugh. What UF needs is for Philo to be a game manager who minimizes his mistakes. The same blueprint as the first three weeks.
Prediction
Colding: Before the season, I had this game predicted as a win, and I’m going to stick with it. Florida’s offense has proved it can perform in any environment, and they will continue to be prolific on Saturday at home. Sumrall said Florida needs to correct the mistakes against Auburn, and every week he has said this, his team has showed improvement. Ole Miss will be coming off an emotional win over Lane Kiffin and LSU, and the uncertainty of Lacy can tilt the game in Florida’s favor. Even with the challenge of defending Chambliss, Florida’s secondary will adjust, and the defense will make enough stops throughout the game to prevail in a shootout to improve to 4-0. Florida 41-38
Rodriguez: This has been one of the hardest decisions that I have made. I’ve been all over the place when it comes to this and prior to the Auburn game I had Ole Miss winning convincingly. However, with a packed Swamp behind you and the hunger that Jon Sumrall brings to this team, the Rebels don’t know what they are walking into. It’ll be a shootout. Florida 45-42
Wheeler: The worst thing that happened to Florida this week was Las Vegas making the Gators the favorite. Coming off their emotional win over their ex-head coach Lane Kiffin, you might have seen a bit of a letdown from the Rebels this week, and UF might have had the chance of catching them sleepwalking. Instead, one of the major storylines this week has been why UF is the favorite. You can bet the Ole Miss staff is making sure to play that up as them being disrespected. Ole Miss 41-31
Season-to-date Predictions
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