Florida-No. 5 Georgia Breakdown & Prediction

Please Read: Welcome to the new-look Inside the Gators

• Take Five: The Next Steps
• Take Five: The Napier Era Ends
• Parental Perspective: Florida Football Parental RoundTable
• Parental Perspective: Four-star’s father talks about the process and the UF staff

Considering the circumstances, other than an outright win, what would be considered a positive for Florida this week?

Alvis: Keeping it within 10 and looking disciplined would be a positive thing for Florida. Since the last win for the Gators in 2020, they have been beaten by at least double digits every game against the Bulldogs. A big reason why they struggled in those games and why Florida struggled as a whole under Billy Napier is a massive lack of discipline. Anyone who watched the Gators in the last four seasons has seen false starts, 12-man penalties, and new flags they haven’t heard of every week. Florida needs to make sure that if they lose this week, it’s because Georgia beat them, and not that Florida beat themselves. That will be the key for the Gators.

Williams: Florida wants to showcase a revamped offense against Georgia. The Gators average the second-fewest points in the SEC. Quarterbacks coach Ryan O’Hara will call plays with Billy Napier’s firing. Perhaps he’ll unlock this Gators offense that’s loaded with weapons such as Dallas Wilson, Jadan Baugh, and Vernell Brown III, whose status is in question due to an AC joint sprain.

Wheeler: Other than an outright win, there are two other potential positives for Florida: showcasing a new look offense and seeing if the players are going to play with a purpose down the stretch. With the spread opening at UGA -9.5 and settling in at around -7, the Bulldogs are without question the favorite, but not as overwhelmingly as you might have thought, considering the current state of the two programs. Vegas doesn’t know how UF is going to respond to Billy Napier’s firing. It is simple; the players will have one of two mindsets: they have nothing to lose or they have nothing to play for. It really is going to be that simple. If the players show they still have some fight in them, this could be a battle. If they are already looking forward to next year (either in Gainesville or elsewhere), UGA might be able to name the score.

What do the Gators need to do to succeed against Georgia?

Alvis: The passing game is going to be the route Florida needs to take if it wants a chance in this game. Georgia has a bottom-five pass defense in the SEC by yards per game, not to mention they have the top rush defense in the SEC. It’s going to be very interesting to see what the offense looks like for the Gators now. A completely new play caller could make DJ Lagway look very different. The QB is confident that Coach O’Hara knows him better than anyone on the team and knows what he does well. I would assume O’Hara will not hesitate to dial up the deep ball.

Williams: Georgia’s defense isn’t as dominant as it’s been in previous years. Tennessee scored 41 and Ole Miss scored 35 against the Bulldogs. Florida’s offense needs to show up, and the defense needs to bounce back after getting crushed by Texas A&M and allowing a bad Mississippi State offense to produce almost 500 yards.

Wheeler: The same thing most SEC games come down to, protect DJ Lagway and affect Gunner Stockton. Going back to my answer above, if UF’s players are still engaged, the Gators will be able to move the ball through the air against the Bulldogs. Everyone has been able to. Not having Vernell Brown III and Aidan Mizell complicates matters, but it still wouldn’t be at all surprising to see Lagway have his best statistical game of the season. The issue is being able to rattle Stockton, who has done a great job of protecting the ball with only one interception on the season. I wouldn’t be surprised if Ron Roberts brings some new looks to put pressure on him, and if that pick number were to be at least doubled on Saturday.

Key Players to watch for Florida? Georgia?

Alvis: Florida needs the opening day Dallas Wilson to show up in Jacksonville. Since his electric debut against Texas, Wilson has struggled in the last two games. If Florida goes through the air like I think they will, I would assume Wilson will be heavily targeted. For the Bulldogs, it’s definitely the RB duo of Chauncey Bowens and Nate Frazier. They split snaps almost exactly 50/50, so Georgia pretty much always has a fresh back on the field. Gators will need to focus on not getting gashed in the run game.

Williams: Florida leaned heavily on sophomore running back Jadan Baugh. Against Mississippi State, he carried the ball 23 times for 150 yards and a touchdown. That said, Georgia has a top-five run defense in the conference. The Gators haven’t faced Bulldogs quarterback Gunner Stockton before. He’s been reliable for Georgia. Florida cannot dismiss his mobility.

Wheeler: For the second year in a row, Georgia features a former Gator (albeit a commit) running back. Last season, though the Bulldogs ran for 146 yards overall, Trevor Etienne wasn’t much of a factor as the third back, with 31 yards on just seven carries. Chauncey Bowens (I still remember him standing in the IPF talking to Napier right before he flipped) is a bigger part of the UGA offense, but if UF can keep him in check and make the Bulldogs one-dimensional, that could be a winning formula. For Florida, this is likely the do-or-die game for Eugene Wilson III. With two prominent receivers sidelined, and his position coach now in charge of the program, if he doesn’t eat on Saturday, it’s likely a sign that his time at UF is nearing its end.

Prediction

Alvis: Georgia is just going to be too much for Florida. While I think the Gators keep it close, the Bulldogs wear them down. UGA 31 UF 27

Williams: Some teams would dismiss this Florida team, especially after a coaching change. Kirby Smart‘s Bulldogs won’t, though. This is a well-coached team that’s loaded with talent. The Gators could have some success moving the ball, but it won’t be enough. Georgia 28-21

Wheeler: This entire game, and what is left of the season, is dependent on how the game begins. If UF is in it at the end of the first quarter, the players will have a reason to keep fighting. If it’s already getting lopsided, you probably won’t see a lot of fight out of them the rest of the way. It will either be a close win or a blowout loss. I’ll go with the win: UF 31-27

Season-to-date Predictions

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