Florida-Mississippi State Breakdown & Prediction

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• September Superlatives
• OTM: Five-Game Stretch Should Determine Napier’s Future

Inside the Gators, Christian Alvis, Lance Williams, and Mark Wheeler take a closer look at Saturday’s match-up between Florida and Mississippi State, including thoughts on what a win or loss would mean for Florida, the biggest advantage and disadvantage, as well as offering up a score prediction.

What would a win or loss mean for the rest of Florida’s season?

Alvis: I think a win would mean that Florida still feels like they have hope for this season. Yes, you would still have a gauntlet left to run playing at least three more ranked teams in Georgia, Ole Miss and Tennessee, but at least the guys in the locker room would still be bought in. A loss would be detrimental for the Gators. Coach on the way out the door, 2-5 on the season with five games to go. There’s not a lot of hope for Florida in that situation.

Williams: A loss would likely mean the end of Billy Napier‘s tenure as head coach. Mississippi State has lost its last 14 SEC games. This would be a detrimental loss. A win doesn’t do much for Florida.

Wheeler: A win will help Florida inch closer to bowl eligibility. Think about that for a moment; we are at exactly the halfway point of October, only a month and a half into the season, and the goal at this point isn’t contending for a playoff spot, it is the uphill battle of becoming bowl eligible. What speaks to the state of the football program under Billy Napier is that a win doesn’t change the narrative about his job security when it comes to a large swatch of the fan base. What speaks to the state of the athletics department is that it doesn’t feel like a loss will necessarily be the end of the Napier era.

What are the Gators’ biggest advantages and disadvantages?

Alvis: I think the best advantage for Florida is the running game. Mississippi State has the second-worst run defense in the SEC and is bottom 30 in the country according to rushing yards per game. Florida has been able to find success in games this year when they are able to get Jadan Baugh going, so that is where the Gators need to focus their attention. The biggest disadvantage for Florida is probably the secondary of Florida. They have been lackluster the past few weeks with multiple busted coverages where the quarterbacks just missed. The Bulldogs like to throw the deep ball, and they will be looking to take the top off of Florida.

Williams: Florida has a huge talent advantage over Mississippi State. The Gators are loaded with top recruits, as the Bulldogs are a team of transfers. Florida’s defensive line needs to perform. They looked good against a mediocre Texas offensive line, but were nonexistent at Texas A&M. Mississippi State has young and inexperienced pass protection.

Wheeler: Florida’s biggest advantage is the Swamp. Florida will be playing in front of its 16th straight sellout on Saturday. Just in general, there is a home-field advantage for a reason. You are in familiar surroundings, the routine is more familiar, you are dealing with friendly faces. It is more pronounced in Gainesville for a couple of reasons. There’s the noise level and intensity of the crowd. I believe the Swamp, in particular, has an outsized impact on opposing offenses, especially the offensive lines, which have to focus on movement and the snap count that it throws them off. It’s no surprise that UF’s defensive lines have had their biggest games at home. Plus, in the case of Billy Napier, I beleive that he is so low energy, the players feed more off the crowd than they do him, and that is a huge advantage. The Gators’ biggest disadvantage is all the outside noise. They can say that they aren’t paying attention to it all they want, but there’s not a person involved in the program who doesn’t know what is being said and written about Napier.

Who are the key players to watch for?

Alvis: For Florida, I think the key players will be Austin Barber and Cormani McClain. Barber is going to be the wall that Jadan Baugh runs behind, and he is going to need to be quick and aggressive off the line. As I previously mentioned, the secondary will be tested this week, which is why I think Cormani McClain is going to be so important on defense. For Mississippi State, I think Florida is going to be so focused on stopping the pass that Fluff Bothwell might be able to have a big day.

Williams: Look for Gators defensive lineman Tyreak Sapp to have a big game. He’s capitalized against unproven offensive lines throughout his career. Mississippi State has two dynamic wide receivers in Brenan Thompson and Anthony Evans III. The Bulldogs’ passing game has been inconsistent, but there’s big play potential. Freshman quarterback Kamario Taylor is also a sneaky threat. He’s one of the better quarterback prospects to ever roll through Starkville, Miss. He’s not polished as a passer, but they may use him in specific situations.

Wheeler: It is all about Jadan Baugh and DJ Lagway. UF’s offense has been at its best when it’s fed Baugh the ball. Add in the fact that MSU has the second-worst run defense in the SEC, and Baugh should feast in this game. Then, there’s Lagway. In his last outing in the Swamp, in the win over Texas, he had what might have been his best day as a Florida Gator. Now, in his return home, we’ll see if he can build on that. On paper, Mississippi State has the fourth-best pass defense numbers in the SEC, giving up just 171 yards per game through the air. They are also tied for the most interceptions with eight. They had mixed results against Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar, giving up 335 yards, but picking him twice. The Bulldogs did do a better job keeping Marcel Reed in check – holding him to fewer yards (180 to 234) and a lower completion percentage (56 to 61) than UF was able to do. If Lagway has numbers closer to Aguilar than Reed, UF should roll.

Prediction

Alvis: Mississippi State has had a successful season so far, being 4-2, but three of those wins are FCS schools, and they have struggled in the two losses. I think this game being in Ben Hill Griffin is a huge factor, and for that reason, I think that the Gators will get this one done. UF 24 MISS ST 10

Williams: The Gators will overwhelm the Bulldogs with sheer talent and homefield advantage. Mississippi State has shown flashes, but they lack quarterback production and have a couple of significant injuries. 34-20 Florida

Wheeler: Don’t let Mississippi State’s record (4-2) and inclusion in the Others Receiving Votes category of the AP Poll fool you – yes, they are better than they were last year, but they aren’t a Top 30 team in the nation. As long as Billy Napier is at the helm, no SEC game is a given, but as long as the players aren’t ready to fold their tents, this one should be comfortably in Florida’s favor. UF 42-17

Season-to-date Predictions

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