Florida-No. 9 Texas Breakdown & Prediction

Please Read: Welcome to the new-look Inside the Gators

• Parental Perspective: Florida Football Parental RoundTable
• Parental Perspective: Four-star’s father talks about the process and the UF staff
• September Superlatives
• OTM: Five-Game Stretch Should Determine Napier’s Future

After sharing his rendition of “The Promise’ last week, is this finally the week that DJ Lagway has his breakout game?

Alvis: Honestly? No. I have basically predicted that DJ Lagway was going to have his breakout week every time since LIU, and it still hasn’t happened. He showed so much promise last season that I think everyone, me included, thought that he would just pick up right where he left off, despite missing so much time. I think he is still getting back comfortable from his injury, but don’t put it past him to have a good game.

Williams: Actions speak louder than words. I’ll believe it when I see it with Lagway. The truth is, he went an offseason without practicing and is still not healthy.

Wheeler: We keep waiting for that breakout game. I don’t know that going against this Texas defense is the best bet to expect it to happen. Actually, we may be at the tipping point here with DJ Lagway where we might have to start to take into consideration that maybe last year was the aberration, and what we have seen this year is who he really is. Last season, he was hardly a complete quarterback, which is understandable for a true freshman at the position, who struggled in the short and intermediate game, but he had a beautiful deep ball and the unique ability to extend plays and throw off platform. He looked like a cornerstone player, a unicorn of sorts. Now, with his performance to date, I refuse to believe that there is such a distance between him and his backups that he shouldn’t see the sidelines if he underperforms once again.

What are Florida’s biggest advantages and disadvantages?

Alvis: Florida’s biggest advantage in this game is the addition of five-star true freshman Dallas Wilson and what he brings to the passing game. While it was said preseason that at full strength the receiving core of Florida might be one of the top in the country, but so far that hasn’t been the case. Older guys like Tre Wilson and J. Michael Sturdivant have struggled to get home and create space on routes. Dallas Wilson will make himself known early and often. The biggest disadvantage for the Gators is that Texas has a top 20 pass defense, plain and simple. If Florida struggles with passing, the run game won’t be much easier because they have a top-three run defense. It’s going to be an uphill battle for the Gators.

Williams: Florida’s biggest advantage is that they have nothing to lose at this point. Their biggest disadvantage is the offense, which has looked sluggish.

Wheeler: Playing at home is Florida’s biggest advantage. Despite being below average on the field under Billy Napier, UF’s fanbase has been superior in showing their support for the team, and showing up and showing out on a week-in and week-out basis. To be frank, in providing a HUGE home field advantage despite his subpar record, the Gator Nation has done more for Napier than Napier has done for the Gator Nation. The biggest disadvantage is nearly everything else. Position by position, Texas is an ultra-talented team.

Who are a couple of key players for Florida? Texas?

Alvis: All of the secondary is going to be important for the Gators because of the loss of Aaron Gates and Dijon Johnson. Devin Moore is someone whom I especially think that Florida will be relying on Saturday against Texas. Obviously, you have Arch Manning in the quarterback battle against DJ Lagway, which will be a key matchup. On defense for Texas, the Gators will need to look out for junior linebacker Liona Lefau, who has been all over the field for the Longhorns to start the season.

Williams: Dallas Wilson is a big addition for Florida. Maybe he’ll unlock the offense. For Texas, watch out for Anthony Hill Jr. and Colin Simmons defensively.

Wheeler: This is simple enough; the two starting quarterbacks are the key to the game. We discussed DJ Lagway‘s season in depth above; the same can be said about Arch Manning, except that he didn’t show anything last year either. Any credible list of the most disappointing players in college football would have the two of them somewhere near the top. I don’t know that either is expected to be the difference in a positive manner this Saturday, so it might come down to which one hinders his team the least.

Prediction

Alvis: If Florida loses this game, which I think they will, I think it is the final nail in the coffin of Billy Napier. Texas 27-17

Williams: Both offenses have been disappointing through four games. I’m expecting a low-scoring game. Texas is a healthier team and more proven, though.  17-14 Texas

Wheeler: Conventional wisdom says that Texas should win this game comfortably, which is why I’m going in the other direction. I don’t believe that Florida will come to life or do anything spectacularly different to actually win the game, as much as I believe that playing in the Swamp will be too much for what has been a shaky-looking Arch Manning to overcome. Florida 21-17

Season-to-date Predictions

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