Florida-No. 3 LSU Breakdown & Prediction

Please Read: Welcome to the new-look Inside the Gators

• Watch & Read: Banks is back
• Recruit Reaction: The USF coach texted me after the game
• Watch & Read: Napier will continue to call plays
• Take Five: 2025 Florida Football Preview
• Florida Football Preseason Superlatives
• Re-Ranking Florida’s Five Transfer Portal additions

Inside the Gators, Christian Alvis, Lance Williams, and Mark Wheeler take a closer look at Saturday’s match-up between Florida and No. 3 LSU, including thoughts on what a win would mean for Billy Napier, players on each side to keep an eye on, as well as offering up a score prediction.

What would a win against No. 3 LSU mean for Billy Napier?

Alvis: This win would be the thing Billy Napier needs to keep his career at Florida alive. Even with the loss to USF, the formula for Napier to stay is still the same: make the CFP. That’s what was said before the season started, and I think that is still what the consensus is: if Napier does not make the CFP, he is gone. This game against LSU is where he would need to turn it all around if there is anything left in the tank.

Williams: A win at LSU would turn Florida’s season around. The loss to USF was bad, but this team is still loaded with talent. While it’s certainly an uphill climb, the Gators can still make the expanded College Football Playoffs.

Wheeler: There’s no question that Billy Napier is feeling the heat – and a win, any win, would cool his hot seat down dramatically. For it to come on the road, against the No. 3 ranked team in the nation, who is in the SEC, against a coach hired at the same time as him, it would renew hopes that UF might just be a CFB Playoff contender, and perhaps go a long way toward justifying Napier’s hire in the first place.

DJ Lagway hasn’t been himself early on this season, but last year he led Florida to a 27-16 win over No. 22 LSU. What should we expect from him on Saturday?

Alvis: It has been really weird watching DJ Lagway play so far this season because he still doesn’t seem like himself. Obviously, he is coming off an injury and still getting back to 100%, but he just looks off. It does feel like if we look at last season, Lagway has tended to step up in the big moments. He took Tennessee to overtime on the road, looked good against Georgia before getting injured, and beat both LSU and Ole Miss. If I had to guess, I think Saturday is going to be the best we have seen Lagway play so far this season.

Williams: Expect a motivated DJ Lagway. He’s been mediocre through two games. He hasn’t been connecting with receivers like he did in 2024. I doubt he can build an offseason worth of chemistry in a week, but he needs to be better.

Wheeler: The first thing we’ll need to do is not pretend like DJ Lagway was the difference in Florida’s upset win last year over then No. 22 LSU. Lagway was 13-of-26 for 226 yards and 1 touchdown. Those aren’t terrible numbers, but they aren’t dynamic either. The biggest issue here might be that Lagway is only starting his third game ever outside of the cozy confines of the Swamp. If you think his timing has been off through the first two games at home, imagine trying to get back on track in an atmosphere such as Death Valley. Still, all it takes is him connecting on a couple of deep balls to turn around his confidence and Florida’s season.

Who are a couple of key players for Florida? LSU?

Alvis: Dijon Johnson and Devin Moore are going to be very important for the Gators in this game. While he hasn’t looked the best so far, Garrett Nussmeier is supposed to be one of the best quarterbacks in the league. The corners are going to be tested early and often in this one, and I think the game will be won in the secondary. If the passing game isn’t able to get going for LSU, I think Caden Durham or Harlem Berry is going to have a solid game, but with the addition of Caleb Banks, the Gators should be able to contain it.

Williams: Watch out for Florida’s defensive line. The Gators sacked LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier seven times in 2024. Tyreak Sapp should be a force. Also, watch to see if Caleb Banks makes his season debut. On the LSU side, watch out for Nussmeier. Elite quarterback and potential Heisman Trophy contender. I also imagine former Gator and current Tiger Jack Pyburn will play with added fire.

Wheeler: During the 2023 preseason, for one of our scrimmage reports, we received info that Jack Pyburn went off, recording multiple sacks. It was later clarified to me that they came against then true freshman Bryce Lovett. Lovett was eventually moved inside to guard, and that was the extent of Pyburn being a sack master, only recording one during a game in his three seasons in Gainesville. Well, Lovett is back outside, and Pyburn is currently an LSU Tiger. That could be an interesting matchup on Saturday. Then you have Caleb Banks returning to action. Last year, he made his biggest splash of the season going against the Tigers’ interior offensive linemen, two redshirt freshmen making their second career starts in the Swamp of all places. That homefield advantage helped Banks against the inexperienced linemen. We’ll see what he can do on the road.

Prediction

Alvis: While the Gators did not look great last week, LSU has not looked good in either game this year. I still believe that Florida has the talent to beat any opponent on their schedule, and I think they show that this week. UF 31 LSU 24

Williams: Florida competes, but it’s not enough. Billy Napier teams haven’t won many tough road games, and it’s not going to happen at Death Valley at night. LSU 28-20

Wheeler: My gut tells me that Florida is a more talented team than they have shown over the first two weeks of the season. That makes this the perfect storm for the Gators to come out motivated to prove themselves and catch LSU sleepwalking a bit. My head tells me that Billy Napier is 4-14 against ranked opponents, 4-10 against SEC opponents away from the Swamp. My head prevails. LSU 31-17

Season-to-date Predictions

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