No. 13 Florida-USF Breakdown & Prediction

Please Read: Welcome to the new-look Inside the Gators

• Watch: A behind-the-scenes look at a Florida unofficial visit
• Take Five Breakdown: This one just became interesting
• Florida Football Preseason Superlatives
• Re-Ranking Florida’s Five Transfer Portal additions

Inside the Gators, Christian Alvis, Lance Williams, and Mark Wheeler take a closer look at Saturday’s match-up between No. 15 Florida and Long Island, including thoughts on what would constitute a successful outing, younger players to keep an eye on, as well as offering up a score prediction.

What are the Gators’ biggest advantages and disadvantages?

Alvis: The biggest advantage for UF is going to be the defensive line. USF played a bad Boise State team last week and beat them by 27 points, and Boise still had 4 sacks on Byrum Brown. I think guys like Jaden Robinson and George Gumbs Jr. are going to have a good day against this USF offensive line. The biggest disadvantage for UF should shock no one: it’s that USF has a mobile QB. Cam Ward, Jayden Daniels, and Marcel Reed, just to name a few, are mobile quarterbacks Florida has struggled to contain in the last couple of years. They need to be on their A-game when it comes to defending this guy.

Williams: The Gators’ biggest advantage in this game is their defense. USF quarterback Byrum Brown made Boise State look childish, but the Gators are different than a Mountain West Conference team. Florida’s biggest disadvantage is its passing game. Schematically, it wasn’t anything special against LIU. Lots of short passes or passes behind the line of scrimmage. Quarterback DJ Lagway flaunted his big arm in 2024, but it wasn’t on display last week.

Wheeler: Coming into the game USF has some momentum after beating a ranked Boise State squad last weekend, but the opposite might be true when it comes to Florida. The Gators might feel like they are being a bit shortchanged, and should come out with a fire lit under them because, despite the final score, they didn’t look like they were at the top of their game last weekend. Also, Florida has a clear-cut advantage in overall talent level. Then you have to factor in that playing in the Swamp has to be a good 7-10 point swing in the Gators’ favor.

Last week, Florida was able to hold Long Island’s version of a running quarterback in check, limiting Ethan Greenwood to just 6 yards on 12 carries. Don’t expect UF to have it quite as easy with USF’s Byrum Brown, who is a good four inches and 45 pounds heavier than Greenwood. It’s true, UF isn’t BSU. It’s also true, Brown isn’t Greenwood – he is a huge weapon for the Bulls.

Is USF the toughest unranked opponent the Gators will face this season?

Alvis: I think that Kentucky or Mississippi State has a chance to be alright this season, so I am going to say no. USF has a lot of hype and momentum coming into this week, but they are still massive dogs against this Gator team. The spread is currently at USF +17.5, and I think that when Florida goes on the road against Kentucky later in the season, it will be a harder game and a harder opponent than USF will be on Saturday.

Williams: USF is Florida’s toughest unranked opponent. Kentucky and Mississippi State might have more talent, but South Florida has a different edge. This is a team filled with Florida natives. Much of this roster probably wanted to play for the Gators but were overlooked. That, combined with the energy after a ranked win over Boise State, creates a hungry opponent.

Wheeler: For now, it could be seen as a toss-up, because when it comes to unranked Florida opponents, there aren’t a lot to choose from. It’s obviously not going to be Long Island, so that leaves USF, Mississippi State, and Kentucky (yes, UF plays eight ranked opponents, as of today). This is harder than it looks, because Kentucky on the road should be the pick, but the Wildcats didn’t look good at all in squeaking by Toledo (24-16) last weekend, and have no passing attack whatsoever. That almost leaves USF by default. So, yes, as of writing this, surprisingly, USF is the toughest unranked opponent UF will face this season.

Who are the key players or two for Florida? South Florida?

Alvis: For Florida, I would probably say Myles Graham on the defense and DJ Lagway on the offense. Myles will probably have the job of containing Byrum Brown from scrambling, so I think a lot will be riding on him. On offense, I think it’s clear it’s Lagway, he never really got comfortable in the game last week, so that will be the goal on offense this week.

For USF it is Byrum Brown. Brown had a terrific week against then top 25 opponent Boise State, and he has been getting a lot of attention for the Bulls this week. If USF has any chance of pulling off the upset this week, it will all be on the shoulders of Byrum Brown.

Williams: If he is healthy, I expect Pup Howard to play a key role in Saturday’s game. Florida will place heavy emphasis on containing South Florida’s dual-threat QB. The Bulls forced three turnovers last week. Lagway has to be careful against an aggressive USF defense. On the other end, Bulls quarterback Byrum Brown will play a big role. He’s a 6-foot-3 do-it-all all QB.

Wheeler: Coming off a game, against an incredibly inferior opponent, where he looked a step behind, and really wasn’t himself, if on Saturday, DJ Lagway isn’t closer to being the DJ Lagway we all saw last year, there might be a storyline worth watching here. If he comes around a little more, then there’s nothing to see. Either way, we will be watching him. Then there’s Bryce Lovett, Knijeah Harris, and Kamryn Waites, three of Florida’s top eight offensive linemen, who all looked inept at times against a LIU Sharks’ defensive line that no one will mistake for a legitimate DI line.

For USF, it’s easy. Byrum Brown will put UF’s defense to the test on Saturday.

Prediction

Alvis: They looked good last week against Boise State, but I think the Gators are just going to be too much for USF to handle. UF 45 USF 17

Williams: USF is hungry entering this game. Florida still has some kinks to iron out. That said, the Gators’ talent will prevail. Florida 31-21

Wheeler: Not to take away from USF’s 34-7 win over then No. 25 Boise State, but the final score isn’t indicative of how the game was actually played. The Broncos had more first downs, passing yards, rushing yards, and fewer penalties. Their three turnovers are what caused the margin. UF isn’t going to play give-away to that extent. UF 31-17

Season-to-date Predictions

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